By JIM PENMAN
CAMBRIDGE SCHOLARS PUBLISHING
New Castle Upon Tyne, UK
1 - He wishes to answer the big questions about why nations rise and fall. And, he wants it to be empirically testable.
2 - The theory identifies looks at temperament based on two systems: one triggered via mild yet chronic food shortage, the other by occasional famine or predator threat.
For example, mild food shortage leads animals to drive away members of their species and become more exploratory.
But they are also triggered via cultural codes of behavior. These have people also endure privation.
3 – Hunter gatherers need only work a few hours a day for food. They often socialize in ways that further defense. If you work harder but socialize less, you’ll likely have fewer offspring survive.
In civilization, the state does defense. If you socialize less and work harder, you’ll likely have more offspring. Epigenetics veers you towards such behavioral changes.
A weak point of cultural systems is that they are vulnerable to the effects of abundance and population density. Rich people get lazy.
Putting history and biology together we get biohistory. This theory comes up with different explanations. For example, WW II was due to the epigenetics of the WWI generation. This can be tested via other historical situations.
Chapter one looks at family and social patterns in civilizations.
Chapter two presents lab studies on food restriction in rats.
Chapter three looks at the impact of food restriction in cultures.
Chapter four uses zoological evidence to investigate V.
Chapter five looks at the age of exposure of cultural technology.
Chapter six traces the rise of C in Victorian England.
Chapter seven, England, Japan and Europe get compared to show C’s rise is driven by high V.
Chapter eight explores the ‘lemming cycles’ as evidence of C and V.
Chapter nine looks at wars and revolution following the peaks of population because anxious mothers make V go up.
Chapter ten looks at the rise and fall of civilizations wherein C promotes large states and V higher birthrates.
Chapter eleven looks at the fall of Rome from infant C.
Chapter twelve and thirteen looks at why some societies are less vulnerable to the loss of C and V. This durability is known as “S” which leads people to indulge infants, but be stricter with older children.
Chapter fourteen traces the rise of S in the Middle East.
Chapter fifteen looks at the decline of the West.
OF SCIENCE AND TEMPERAMENT
We are unique in that, apart from ants and termites, no other species unites thousands of individuals to work together and fight against outsiders.
But in terms of family and social patterns, we vary enormously.
10 – But certain family patterns are more often found in large-scale civilizations. They restrict sexual activity and marry later form monogamous nuclear families and control their children’s behavior.
There is a fundamental temperamental difference between civilized and non-civilized folks.
In the 1930s J. D. Unwin found civilized societies are more likely to control sexual behavior. And those with severe obedience training are more likely to be politically complex. But these studies have several problems.
THE CROSS-CULTURAL SURVEY
12 - They surveyed 67 societies and verified the correlation between political and economic complexity and limits on sexual behavior.
13 – They also found politically and economically complex societies are more likely to form nuclear monogamous families, marry late and control their children’s behavior.
15 - Limits on sexual behavior and control of children are just as distinctive a feature of larger states as markets are.
THE TEMPERAMENTAL BASIS OF CIVILIZATION
16 – Sexual restraint, it is argued, makes people more accepting of wider authority, inclined to do routine work, better suited to a market economy, and accepting of impersonal moral codes.
GIBBONS and BABOONS
Gibbons are tree dwelling apes living in South East Asia. They act like civilized people. Baboons are terrestrial and live in open grasslands of Africa. They are more like small-scale society people.
Gibbons are far less sexually active than baboons. They are less sociable. They spend less time of every day in social activities.
17 – Gibbons are also less tolerant of each other. Gibbon males drive away other adult males and other females will not tolerate other females, including their own offspring after puberty.
Baboons have an average group size of 67 in which the dominant male monopolizes the females. They are never monogamous.
18 – Gibbons delay mating until after establishing a territory. They mate two years after sexual maturity. They reproduce below their potential.
Baboons are limited mainly by predation and infanticide. Females are active after puberty and males are active whenever they can be.
Gibbons are also highly discriminating in who they mate with.
Gibbons stay in close contact with their young until puberty. Baboons wean their young and don’t do much after that.
19 – Gibbon food is far more scattered and so they spend more time looking for it.
LIMITED FOOD AS AN EXPLANATION FOR GIBBON BEHAVIOR
Gibbons live in one of the most food restricted places on earth. Their food is always there, year out, though. Hunger is a daily, not a yearly problem. Also trees make them less vulnerable to predators. So food availability is the biggest constraint on their population.
Baboons have variable, yet abundant, food supplies.
21 – THE ADVANTAGES OF DIFFERENT BEHAVIOR IN DIFFERENT ENVIRONMENTS
Troop size is a trade-off between foraging efficiency and defense against predators. Feeding in large groups is inefficient, but it makes for good defense. Animals socialize less when food is scarce.
When food is scarce a big baboon troop will scare away a smaller one. They then spend more time in socializing.
22 – Gibbons are rarely taken by predators. Food scarcity is their biggest problem so they limit family size.
Gibbons are timid about predators, they flee. Baboons are bolder. They do alarms and swarm predatory leopards. Sometimes killing them.
23 – More abundant food makes animals bolder and more group-minded but does not fully account for the level of aggression in savannah baboons. Aggression is discussed in chapter four.
Timidity makes sense when the risk of predation is low. It makes sense when escape is easy.
Gibbons live long lives, up to 44 years in captivity. Baboons, 30 in captivity, their life is nasty, brutish and short.” Fierce dominance battles among baboons mean they often live shorter lives. This is striking because larger animals usually live longer and baboons are usually twice the weight of gibbons.
24 – If your life is to be short quick breeding makes sense. In baboons a majority of female deaths can be due to predation. Alpha males often die due to dominance fight injuries.
Thus gibbons have elaborate courtship rituals, so that subtle differences in behavior and appearance act to prevent interbreeding. Thus, regional populations become more distinct and eventually form a multiplicity of species, which is the case with gibbons.
25 – CHANGES IN BEHAVIOR AS A RESPONSE TO ENVIRONMENT
Gibbon behavior is an adaptation not a response. Even in disparate environs, they display the same behaviors. They always have monogamy or two males to one female, polyandry.
Other species, baboons and vervets included, show a variety of behaviors to suit different environments. None include monogamy, but the number of males per troop varies.
26 – Both Gibbons and baboons have smaller troops when there is scarcity and predators are fewer. In difficult environs, tree dwellers like gibbons, give birth later and less often.
Also in food shortages baboon males are more likely to throw tantrums and so get more attention from their mothers.
28 – Whereas troops in food limited areas spend the same amount of time moving, they move faster.
In food poor areas they also spend less time grooming each other. There are fewer males in the group and more are solitary. This though there is sometimes less aggression between groups.
Also, males from less productive islands were never seen to mate with females in other groups r to transfer groups. This make indicate a preference for mating with more similar animals and friends.
THE ADVANTAGES TO BEING ABLE TO CHANGE BEHAVIOR AS A RESPONSE TO CHANGES IN FOOD
This can happen quickly. Snub-nosed monkeys in Yunnan form smaller groups during the winter.
30 – When food is plentiful and predators are common coming together in a large group provides better defense. Also breeding happens earlier. Males compete fiercely for reproduction.
When predation is strong, though, the food becomes relatively plentiful. Plentiful food switches on the anti-predator responses of larger and bolder troops against usual predators but not men with shotguns.
31 – This is in humans too. People who live in societies that are short of food are more monogamous and modest in dress. Women in these societies are more likely to report that they do not enjoy sex.
HOW DO CHANGED FOOD CONDITIONS AFFECT BEHAVIOR?
32 – It is epigenetic. Flexibility has its limits. Baboons never behave like gibbons.
CR means ‘calorie restriction’ in this book. It does not mean starvation. And, calorie restrictions have health benefits. It delays aging, reduces diabetes, cancer, brain atrophy and cardiovascular disease. It also improves memory and learning.
33 - When food is more plentiful, the hormone leptin increases. When mice are given sugar (indicating abundant food) 26% fewer males were able to establish territories – they were less territorial.
THE GENETIC AND ENVIRONMENTAL COMPONENTS OF CR BEHAVIOR
The most successful species are those that are best adapted in body and behavior to their environments. Baboons, for example, move better on the ground. Gibbons have longer arms to get more food in trees and now do great acrobatics. We don’t adapt genetically, we do so via CR signaling.
35 – We can therefore predict behavior based on CR. Again, within limits.
“NATURAL” LEVELS OF CR-RELATED BEHAVIOR IN HUMANS
Based on gatherer hunters: the CR behavior is low. They live in multi-family groups that hunt and travel together. The subsistence patterns have more in common with baboons than gibbons. Men spend much of their time hunting. This is not routine.
Men are adapted to life in the open, long walking, we are game to numerous predators. Farmers and moderns are more CR like: monogamous and with long routines. We’re more like gibbons.
But, unlike gibbons, we’re highly cooperative. They are more isolationist, each couple defending its territory. We likely lived in multiple male packs. But in Victorian Britain we were very monogamous. In much of Africa there is polygyny and promiscuity.
Of course we often did so without calorie restrictions (CR). But to understand this we need to look at epigenetics.
STARVATOPM VERSUS HUNGER
Starvation is harmful and stressful; CR can have benefits. In the studies herein, rats were given 25% less food, in some 50% less for 3 days – like a diet.
THE EFFECTS OF CR ON TESTOSTERONE AND OTHER HORMONES
40 - CR reduces testosterone. But not for the group that starved for 3 days.
Men with high testosterone are less likely to be married or in a committed relationship. They spend less time with their wives and divorce more often.
41 – In women, higher testosterone means increased libido. This is the same as in areas with plentiful food. Women in prison have much higher testosterone.
High testosterone males are more likely to use drugs, be delinquent, abuse alcohol or go AWOL. They also perform better in combat. It is consistent with high risk behavior. Hi T folk are more gregarious and need others to be happy.
42 – High-status animals have higher testosterone – this is true in prison. But, people with low testosterone have higher occupational status.
In diminishing order, unemployed, sales, farmers. Self-employed are high and ministers are very low. Country lower than city. It interferes with many modern activities.
This is for people in high food areas like baboons mobbing a leopard
43 – In humans, men’s testosterone drops after becoming fathers. This is why we’re good dads even in food deprived areas.
The food deprived also have less leptin.
44 - CALORIE RESTRICTION AND STRESS HORMONES
Mild CR increases Corticosterone (CORT) but has no effect on adrenocorticotropic (ACTH)
45 – CORT helps stave off the negative effects of stress and aids recovery. People who recover from stress have high CORT those with PTSD, not so much.
CR AND SEXUAL BEHAVIOR
CR reducing T and leptin, luteinizing hormone (LH) and follicle-stimulating hormone (FSH) impacts sexual activity and maturation. CR animals are less fertile, reach puberty later and engage in less intercourse.
47 – Light does T, and 50% does T and leptin. Even moderate CR reduces sex drive and desire.
Male CR rats are less attractive to females.
48 – Ovulating women are fertile and prefer high testosterone men. Non-ovulating, less T. Facial cues indicate T.
49 – High T shows an animal has a strong immune system. So a good looking male has good genes.
CR and HEALTH
CR improves health because animals shift energy from reproduction to body maintenance.
51 – CR RESTRICTION, EXPLORATION AND ACTIVITY
CR animals are more exploratory. CR rats venture outside easier. They go up on their hind legs (exploratory) more often.
53 – CR and FEAR OF PREDATORS
Exploring animals are less anxious. But, 25% rats are still cautious when smelling cat urine. If there is less food, there are fewer predators. No food animals search for food more and are quicker to flee from predators.
CR AND REDUCED SOCIABILITY
CR Animals are less sociable. Men too.
54 – CR animals are less tolerant of members of their own species, attacking more fiercely and persistently. CR rats quickly meet other animals and then walk over them (a dominance sign). You don’t need big groups for defense, so less social.
CR AND MATERNAL CARE
CR improves maternal care. The CR moms spend more time with their pups. This means they have a better chance of survival.
55 – EFFECTS OF MATERNAL CR ON OFFSPRING
50% starvation in mom produces high CORT, ACTH and stress levels. But mild CR produces lower ACTH.
59 – But mild CR in infant mothers creates higher testosterone and Leptin, lower ACTH, CORD and Adrenaline. The lower stress hormones does NOT seem to be due to better maternal care.
EFFECTS OF MATERNAL CR on OFFSPRING BEHAVIOR
50% CR causes offspring to be more aggressive and dominant when adults. They are more exploratory. (25% no difference though).
61 – The pups spent less time wrestling, but were more aggressive as adults. The effects are the opposite of those seen in adult CR.
Adult CR makes animals more willing to explore, but their offspring, less so (if food went to normal).
EFFECTS OF MATERNAL CR ON OFFSPRING SEXUAL BEHAVIOR
Again, the opposite: Adult CR reduces sexuality; maternal CR increases it in adult offspring. The biggest rise here and in T is in CR for pre-conception mothers. The offspring reached sexual maturity earlier and mounted more. Lifetime for all cancelled this out.
62 – EFFECTS OF MATERNAL CR ON GENE EXPRESSION
Genes make proteins and epigenetics modulate this. These are inherited.
Famine or feast, in Sweden, was shown to impact the life spans of grandchildren. Boys whose grandfathers had CR lived longer.
Later CR can reverse these effects, perhaps.
THE CIVILIZATION FACTOR
Chapter 1 showed complex nations and economies go with monogamy, curbs on sexual behavior, late marriage and control of children.
Food restricted animals show these same characteristic. They are less social and invest more time in offspring and work more.
In Chapter 2 we looked at the impact of CR. Remember, this is for mild CR, not for starvation.
66 - RELATING ANIMAL STUDIES TO HUMANS
Low CR folks are more likely to be employed and excel in occupations that require repetitive work routines and delayed gratification.
But, high T folks are good sports stars and entertainers.
Low T folks are more timid, make pair bonds, more interested in offspring. They have a greater willingness to look for food when not hungry. We see the same in hunter gatherers and horticulturalists when food is chronically scarce.
67 – But we see this CR behavior in civilizations wherein food is NOT always scarce.
FOOD-RESTRICTED BEHAVIOR AND ECONOMIC SUCCESS
In A Farewell to Alms, Gregory Clark shows how for hundreds of years in England better-off families had more surviving children than the poor. He did this will wills. In terms of surviving children, wealth mattered more than education or literacy.
Pre-modern England did have quite a bit of social mobility. But most mobility was downward as heirs split the land.
68 – The only way to maintain wealth was via CR-related behaviors.
69 - “C” Stands for “civilizations.” Civilized societies, and animals chronically short of food, tend to high C. Small-scale societies and animals with lots of food, low C.
THE ADVANTAGES OF LOW C
Low C men have high T, they are dominant in face-to-face encounters, attractive to women, successful in sport and entertainment and are bolder (if less disciplined) soldiers.
This is great for a hunter-gatherer. In these societies, men work fewer hours and do better if they are dominant, aggressive and impulsive.
They did not need to spread out for food. Their numbers were kept low via constant warfare. They needed large areas only to hide from enemies.
70 – They were very baboon. The difference being that, while more promiscuous than farmers, hunter gathering humans do more pair bonding.
HIGH C AND FARMING
71 – Temperament explains agriculture; it is a prerequisite. Bantu farmers have colonized land for farming, the pygmies see the benefits, but don’t like long hours. So they get hired as plantation guards.
This explains the difficulty in getting aborigines in Australia to man a farm a century ago. Hunger gathers are better at herding cattle.
THE BIOLOGICAL BASIS OF WORK
Why? Because CR animals search for food even when they are not hungry.
They are working for the future, not immediate benefit.
72 – Between 250 and 50 thousand years ago, human skulls became rounder and brow ridges less prominent; both signs of lower testosterone. This may have prepared us temperamentally for agriculture. This would have made better fathers.
THE BIOLOGICAL BASIS OF THE MARKET
Civilized people are more likely to work via the market. This is harder to tie to biology. But, impersonality is a potential explainer.
A territorial animal is oriented towards a piece of ground rather than to other members of the species. This is impersonal. They drive intruders away from their territory. Their relations are personal and within the band.
73 – Tribal people do trade. But, they then share with kin. This is why aboriginals don’t get rich.
74 – Gibbons make good traders because they lack a strong preference for one neighbor or another. Baboons are much more social. They groom more.
OTHER EXPLANATIONS FOR THE RISE OF AGRICULTURE
75 – Here he challenges the 10,000 year explosion idea that genes mutation led to agriculture. C is variable within populations and changes quickly – especially falls!
C temperament is the basis of all. It is modeled by high status folk. It accounts for the Europeans dominating low C natives, Northern Chinese dominating southerners and Bantu speakers in Southern Africa taking over.
76 – OTHER BENEFITS OF HIGH C
People with low T are less aggressive and more law-abiding. In civilization, violence means death penalty, not more kids. It makes better parents.
When people adopt agriculture, their standard of living drops. People die earlier have more malnutrition and disease. Both parents must work. And, so the hardworking leave more offspring.
C seems to have risen steadily over the past 10,000 years. Agriculture makes surplus and then armies. Also death by violence goes down. One reason Europeans took over is that there were more of them than Indians.
C makes larger states and larger states make more C.
He disputes Diamond. Africans had contact with advanced societies.
78 - HOW CULTURE SUPPORTS C
Religion is a “C-Promoter”.
Jews and Catholics, Buddhists, etc all fast.
79 - Muslims will eventually take over much of the world starting with Europe. Patriarchy and Purdah, not liberal democracy will be the true ‘end of history.’
Why? Ramadan promoting discipline and self control.
Jains are the only strict vegetarians. This makes them commercially successful. They are less than .5% of the population of India and pay 24% of the nations income tax.
FASTING IS NOT ENOUGH – THE “EFFECT FEEDBACK CYCLE”
We are naturally a C species. But too much fasting makes us sick.
80 - Any behavior that results from high C, if reinforced by external pressures, further raises C. This is a feedback cycle.
People who act as if they have high c will raise their c. All C promoters reduce testosterone.
Curbing sex is the most effective C-promoter. It reduces T and doesn’t have the harmful impact of too much fasting.
81 – It seems that sex may increase T more than abundant food.
82 – The estimate is that fasting and limits on sex can lower T by 80%.
Women’s T goes up the day before they met the partners from whom they had been separated. Levels were the lowest when separated from their partners for at least 2 weeks.
Sex increases Luteinizing hormone too. Sex at puberty has an especially powerful impact on T. It can double T in rats. This persists for a long time.
83 – Restricting sex in young is usually done in civilization by restricting young female’s sexuality. This is especially important as women’s C is important due to child rearing.
Heavy commerce folks, like Jains and Jews, tend to also police their male youth’s sexuality.
But when men are warriors, low C and high T has benefits. But women don’t fight so there is no similar benefit in their having high T. So it is adaptive for warlike societies to have a double standard. Women are chaste and men can use prostitutes.
Jealousy is helpful, but doesn’t always work so it isn’t key.
84 – Boys who have less sex as youths, have higher education levels.
85 - This is not just due to a low sex drive as they have high nocturnal emissions. High ed folks have nearly three times the nocturnal emissions.
86 - This is true of married men too.
87 – Males achieve the class of those whose sexual patterns they adopt.
The benefit of doting parents is not intrinsic to parenting, it may be due to limiting opportunities for T raising sex. And, the effect is so long lasting that it likely has an epigenetic effect too.
A teenager joining a ‘faster’ group will adopt their behaviors, undermine C and raise their T.
Kinsey found all religious people and especially orthodox Jews have lower sexual activity, even when married.
88 – Those who do drugs early are more likely to abuse drugs.
89 – Societies where women report not enjoying sex have higher political and economic systems.
90 – Restricting sex is also associated with the desire for children, in that having more children increases a woman’s status.
CONTROL OF CHILDREN
Controlling children is done by parents with support from the wider community.
Religious community helps here. Alternatively, as a culture falls the wider culture undermines C parenting. It seems less natural. Dr. Spock pushed this narrative in the West.
Only 35% of the identical brothers of violent criminals or rapists engage in the same types of behavior. So peers and the community help set temprament.
We saw in rats, CR has a impact during gestation or even before conception. We need more expriments with fathers here.
The country promotes C and the city reduces it. Rural males have less sex, Kinsey shows. Farmers have puberty later. This is why flappers, etc., are mostly in the city.
WORK, SABBATH KEEPING
High C has a feedback effect, in which high C cultures make people enforce more high C. Work with the Sabbath regulation is a double plus.
Prayers and repeating chants raises C. They are public and create social pressure. Any detailed code of conduct can have such an effect, by creating conrol. Honesty, obedience to law, non-violence and courtesy are examples of less strict codes that work.
SOCIAL AND RELIGIOUS PRESSURES
Girls who shame the family might be ostracized, if she gets married, it will likely be to a lower order of men. Religion is a big C promoter.
94 - They resist sex and the resistance to homosexuality is an example.
Gods punishing for generations is mentioned as true and supportive of C.
THE BENEFITS OF RELIGION
95 – Secular authorities used to back religion and this helped too.
96 – COMPETITION BETWEEN RELIGIONS
Biohistory helps explain why all civilizations have had and allocated so many resources to religion: it is a driving force in social evolution.
There is competition between “cultural technologies.”
STRESS AS A C PROMOTER
Stress promotes C and can be caused by overcroding danger or starvation. In rats it means an increase in CORT and a decline in testosterone. Blocking CORT nullifies this decline.
Cortisol is the equivalent of CORT in baboons (who have the same dynamic as above). Direct infusion of CORT mirrors these effects in songbirds, men, rhesus monkeys and lizards. It also reduces FSH and Luteinizing hormone in hen and rats.
It reduces interest in sex.
98 – These include sex, alcohol, recreational drugs, caffeine, idleness and high-calorie food. Mice given extra sugar were less adept at defending their territory.
People look at sugar and obesity. But, it also reduces self-discipline and self-control. Adolescents who drink more than five cans of soft drink a week are more likely to carry a weapon and attack peers family members and dates. Soft drinks are also linked with social withdrawal and attention problems in five-year olds.
C-demoters such as soft drinks and junk food boost mood in the short term, but they reduce C in the long term the raise anxiety. This can lead to a short fix which creates ore anxiety.
C-demoting drugs reduce anxiety for a tad, but then it rises again. Excessive sex works the same way.
99 – SUMMARY
C promoters increases the capacity for work and delayed gratification. It promotes law abiding behavior and reduces violence. In increases interest in children. Religion helps this.
And the feedback effect takes this beyond the requirements of an individual’s temperament.
C makes people industrious and more accepting of political authority.
This chapter will use baboons to illustrate V (Vigor) and how it interacts with C..
BABOONS COMPARED WITH DOMESTICATED ANIMALS
101 - Domesticated animals are low C. They are less timid than wild animals, they are capable of living together in large groups. They make poor mothers. They are highly seed and indiscriminant in mating. Courtship rituals break down in domesticated ducks.
Farmers breed for tame animals that can tolerate crowding and produces young easily. But it is hard to keep breeds distinct in captivity, they mix.
Baboons are fierce.
102 – A second difference between domesticated animals and baboons is that baboon troops have an impressive level of organization. It is hierarchical with one male leader. As the kids are his, he is protective of the troop.
103 – They move with the most vulnerable members in the center. Status males confront dangers. Baboons are also intolerant of crowding. (Domesticated with lots of males, they kill each other).
Baboon males dominate females. They are bigger. Sometimes attacked by males, usually males protect females.
Baboons are good parents to infants, who have a distinctive black color and are handled by all the females. But once weened, offspring are rejected. By human age 2 they are left to run wild.
104 – This is different from low C parenting. Low C parents are not interested in children at any age.
There is also a difference in that baboon fathers protect their older offspring from attack when the new alpha-male tries to kill the old ones.
104 – Thus baboons resemble warlike pastoral societies.
V helps them as life on the savannah is dangerous.
105 – By making animals intolerant of overcrowding, high V encourages them to migrate. This is vital when food supplies run low. Migration can expose one to brutality. So again, V, helpful.
Food resources exist in the forest. So this V behavior is not necessary. They could just be low C. But, V is necessary for arduous migration.
GENES VERSUS ENVIRONMENT AS A SOURCE OF V
Chimpanzees are hyper aggressive and kill their own. Baboons do not. Also, baboon females can be dominant over males.
106 – Bonobos remain less aggressive than Chimps even in captivity. So the difference is likely genetic. Gibbons also stay C in captivity. Genetic.
High V is for dangerous and unpredictable environs.
But, this is variable. Baboons in marginal areas which have more food are less hierarchical. Also, when a TB epidemic wiped out many baboons, they became less hierarchical.
107 – And other monkey studies show V is variable, not genetically fixed.
108 - INCREASED INTERMITTENT STRESS
What causes V to rise? Stress.
Baboons are stressed by each other and the environment. Water crossings and attacks by predators increase stress. Relative’s death increases glucocorticoid in feces.
109 - Societies with a history of unpredictable natural disasters are far more likely to engage in warfare. Significantly, chronic food shortage is NOT correlated with warfare. This study also found that encouraging aggression in children declined when warfare declined.
Predation increases V and lowers C. It makes them hierarchical and well organized.
V from famine encourages migration. This famine can trigger epigenetic traits and child rearing changes.
110 - V transmission starts when baboons leave anxious mother’s protection to the violent world of baboon social life.
Hierarchy keeps down violence. Baboons rest a lot. But, periodic status challenges raise cortisol to high levels.
When well fed, the C and V levels drop.
111 – Stress shuts down body systems not related to fight or flight. Usually this dies down quickly, but not if repeatedly harassed. Here we will look at the impact of different kinds of stress.
Male rats separated from their mothers during infancy develop depression-like behavior and are more aggressive to other males.
112 - Monkeys reared in social isolation have bizarre, often ritualistic behavior. Fearful, then fearless, self destructive, and poor at cooperation. This is the opposite of the highly organized V behavior.
THE MUNDUGUMOR – A CASE STUDY IN INFANT NEGLECT
113 – Mead visited the Mundugumor in the 1930s. They have very little contact with their offspring.. They were riven by hostility between parents and children, husbands and wives, brothers and neighbors.
114 – Their population was low and dropping despite abundant food. By contrast, baboons were effective mothers and so cohesive and well organized.
CORTISOL AND AGGRESSION
Stress in later childhood and adolescence also makes children and animals more aggressive. While, stressed adults tend to be less aggressive.
115 – Low doses of CORT increase aggression, while longer exposure decreases it.
Low cortisol levels are associated with aggression in school-age boys. They have more verbal and physical aggression, cruelty to pets, lying, truancy, vandalism and stealing.
116 - Criminals who committed violent crimes had high testosterone. But the impact was greatest amongst those who also had low cortisol levels.
So quick stress increases aggression, chronic stress lowers it.
Alpha males have low stress and so higher aggression. They were also indulged and protected as infants by anxious mothers. So they can cooperate.
117 – INTERMITTENT STRESS: THE TOUGHENING EFFECT
How can cortisol / stress have opposite effect ( a little more aggressive a lot, less aggressive)? Toughening.
We saw earlier separating rats from their mothers for more than three hours a day makes them more reactive to stress, more fearful, and less willing to explore novel environments.
High levels of CORT to post-birth mothers creates fear in adult offspring. But moderate CORT in drinking water improves maternal care, protects against brain damage, and improves learning and memory.
118 – They improve the capacity of amine-producing cells that are responsible for noradrenaline, adrenaline and dopamine. These focus attention.
119 - But chronic stress depletes amines. Reduced dopamine lowers people’s ability to feel pleasure. Short term stress gives amines time to recover and makes them more productive.
120 – This is different from the more damaging cortisol response.
Two monkeys were yoked together. Both shocked the same, but one given the power to turn it off. The coping monkey had what is known as a Cannon response; the other a Selyean response.
121 – A chart shows the differences. The Cannon toughens. It helps coping with future challenges. Cannon has many good effects, Selyean, bad.
This explains why infant punishment leads to lifetime anxiety: the infant cannot control and so is Selyean. The brief separation and high CORT anxious response by mama produces Cannon response.
122 – Older children react differently to punishment. They understand why and that it will end.
So punishment in infancy undermines V and intermittent punishment in later childhood may increase it.
V is likely most in larger authoritarian families, because having another child means the first gets less attention.
MATERNAL ANXIETY, HIGH STATUS MALES
Again, CR increases CORT in mothers but reduces it in their adult offspring by half!
123 – An anxious CR mother who is doting creates, then, low CORT and a cooperative assertive person. High V. But an abusive CR mother creates an adult who cannot cooperate.
Cortisol limits aggression. A male reared by a subordinate female, grows us less anxious and so may be dominant. This leads to dominant cooperative males so baboons and people with anxious mothers are patriarchal?
4 conditions for aggressive but cooperative V:
1) Mother is anxious.
2) Mother is indulgent and protective.
3) Intermittent juvenile stresses.
4) High status as an adult.
124 – EPIGENETIC CHANGES
Seems based on earlier findings this could be epigenetic. Behavior correlates with neurochemistry changes.
GENETIC “SET POINTS” for V
125 – Different species have different C resting points. Gibbons high; baboons, low.
Baboons are naturally high in V. Males are larger and the back coloring of infants insures early care. Gibbons have neither.
Humans evolved for the savannah and so should have high V. But, hunter-gatherers are low. Our genders are similar in size and treat children well. Our V is moderate to low.
126 – But we’re extremely variable.
127 – UNDERSTANDING V
V is subject to the same feedback cycle C is. V behavior increases V.
V is reduced by chronic uncontrollable stress, most strikingly by maternal neglect or separation in infancy. This creates high cortisol and ineffective responses to stress. Low V people are passive and lack confidence and have poor social adjustment.
V IN HUMAN SOCIETIES
Gibbons are naturally high C and humans low. But we can adjust. Same with V,
low but adjustable.
128 – V helps nations compete.
Barbarians brought civilization a boon by imposing V-promoting customs on the peoples they conquered.
HIGHER V FROM HARSH AND UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENTS
Harsh environments with unstable food increase V. The Arabs of the 8th century are an example.
129 – Once they became settled in wealthy, fertile land, they lost much of their V. Ibn Khaldun noted this.
RAISING V THROUGH CULTURE
Fasting raises V (as well as C). V is also increased by commandments to honor your parents and ‘spare the rod, spoil the child.’
Sparta’s culture maximized V.
130 – English public schools of the 19th century too. Like Spartans, they had vigorous sport, bullying through the fagging system, cold showers and physical punishment.
The Duke of Wellington said, “The battle of Waterloo was won on the playing fields of Eton.”
131 – Severe intermittent stresses, such as a period of famine or attack by a predator attack, or simply by exposure to powerful authority, increase V in adults. Military training simulates these conditions.
Exercise and being ranted on by officers elevates stress hormones. Harsh environs help too. Navy SEALs hell week is a good example.
133 - A CASE STUDY – CULT PURCHASE IN THE NEW GUINEA HIGHLANDS
Early life experiences are very important. Initiation ceremonies of early peoples elevated V and inculcated cultural values.
They separate boys from their mothers. They are given frightening sights and sounds. Some fled in terror. These are called Bachelor cults.
134 - PATRIARCHY
Successful cults concentrate on male ancestors and give men crucial ceremony roles. Off all V-promoting customs, patriarchy is probably the most important.
Societies in which men dominate women are more aggressive, internally and in competition with neighbors. This and punishing older children brings V.
135 – Thus, it is not customs of patriarchy, but actual patriarchy that matters. Dominance in the home comes from a dominant male. This increases stress.
Anglo-Saxon England was not so patriarchal. Women were not to be married against their will and retained property in marriage. Wills show money going to daughters. But this was associated with growing military weakness.
136 – England fell to the Normans in 1066. The Norman’s patriarchal ways spread to the Brits.
Patriarchal societies are more likely to punish children in late adulthood. And, this kicks in a feedback cycle.
139 – HARSH TREATMENT OF JUVENILES
V increases the birthrate and this, in turn, increases V because the older siblings get less attention after weaning, (increasing anxiety) and means less protection from bullying.
140 – Frank Sulloway backed this by finding first-born sons are more conservative and identify more with parents.
Harsh environs also increase patriarchy and male confidence and cooperation with hierarchy.
141 – With baboons older males provide stress (though alphas have less). Schoolmaster lectures do this in humans.
SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS
Thus, parental control in late childhood is not only a C-promoter, but also a V promoter, though only mildly so in the absence of punishment. V comes to a peak when adults have high status and, so, lower cortisol.
Those with high V are aggressive, confident and function well in small hierarchies. They are patriarchal. They have more children.
This evolved in resource rich but unstable and dangerous environs.
INFANCY AND CHILDHOOD
144 – C promoters and V promoters in infancy have very different effects from those in later childhood.
CHILD V – AUTHORITY AND STRESS IN LATE CHILDHOOD
Of all the V promoters, stress in later childhood is interesting because it makes the “Child V” characteristic of accepting authority.
Cross-cultural studies found parents in politically complex societies are stricter and have more controlling of children. They train children to be obedient, act dutifully, restrain from showing emotion, and dress modestly.
145 – Patriarchy makes people aggressive, but not accepting of wider political authority.
THE EFFECTS OF STRESS
Parental control is unrelated to aggression. In fact societies that control children in infancy are LESS likely to feud. This high C is respect for rank, based on loyalty, not fear.
146 – Brutal leaders rise because people are more likely to obey them than in low-stress societies. In a stressed society where people are motivated by fear, they may like a leader with gifts; but they will obey B.
Failure to understand cultural underpinnings has led to the waste in Iraq and Afghanistan. Russia did better in Chechnya by installing their own brutal dictator.
147 - CHILD V AND TRADITION
Stress in the juvenile period or at puberty makes conditioning easier to impose and harder to erase when the rats become adults.
C promoters on infants are different from their effects on older children.
148 – Infant C happens when mothers are CR while nursing. This is largely irreversible. This reflects adult’s predisposition and behavior.
C is associated with lack of food in juvenile rats. After adolescence restrictions on sex are especially important C promoters.
However, the highest levels of C always involve infant training.
Children brought up strictly tend to be disciplined and hard-working, but they are not necessarily religious or likely to have large families.
149 – Religious commitment and intense interest in children are especially associatesd with ‘adult C.’
C usually is associated with lower testerone, but infant C may be associated with higher C. That is not yet confirmed.
C VERSUS INFANT C
Infant C has little effect on political complexity, but contributes to family patterns that lead to high C.
151 - For high V we need subordination of women and anxious mothers, also rigid control of women’s chastity with looser standards for men. These maximize male T.
In modern Afghanistan female scandal can lead to death. Men, meanwhile, are philanderers. This gives them high C and V in sons.
They even, as in Greece, have some homosexuality. Warriors are forbidden to do business, (as this increases C). Trade also leads to wealth which undermines V. V folks see hardship and virtue as closely connected.
152 – They need a combo and balance of infant C which creates discipline and V which is generally anti-C.
THE BENEFITS OF HIGHER C FOR BUSINESS AND THE PROFESSIONS
Kinsey found men with high nocturnal emissions were more successful. Puritans were also notoriously C.
153 - Mormons today.
HIGH C AND RELIGION
Ministers have high C and low T. Kinsey found religious people even have less sex in marriage.
155 – The fastest growing religions are those which are more rigorous and traditional.
In our declining C society, however, people largely are for more ‘doing what they want.’ Unfortunately, “natural” human behavior creates a temperament suited to low tech environments, with no formal education and small groups.
Religious people having more kids helps maintain societies, C despite declining C in the overall society. The Orthodox Jew birth rate in Israel is 3.3.% (more than double liberal and conservatives).
156 - CREATIVITY
Parental control in late childhood increases C but it also increases child V which is linked to more traditional thinking. Intense control with no punishment raises C and V just a little.
Restricting sex increases creativity. Da Vinci never married and was charged with sodomy. Michelangelo may have been homosexual. Newton died a virgin. Hawking only focused after his neurone disease.
157 – Raymond Cattell found creative folks are dominant with low ‘surgency” (life of the party temperament). Strength of character and introversion. Restrcting sex (especially in adolescence) reduces surgency.
The problem is that people who reject traditional thinking often also reject control of sex.
HOMOSEXUAL ORIENTATION AS A C-PROMOTER
158 - If a society represses homosexuality it would increase their creativity, but they would not have children.
Bisexuality could act as a C or V promoter by making sex in marriage less satisfying. And they would have kids.
HIGH INFANT C MAINTAINED THROUGH NANNIES
Women tend to work less and have access to food. So this means their C will decline and so their offspring. So, nannies!
159 – 19th century nannies kept children under tight control. They began toilet training early and were obsessed with controlling sexual behavior. Spartan nannies too.
CAST STUDY 1 – YANOMAMO
Prior to 10,000 years ago, we were low C, low V, with personal associations. Children were treated indulgently and sexual relations were relatively free.
Yanomamo were like this. Indulgent to kids who were then set free. Bu then harsh patriarchy and beating of women. Boys were trained to be fierce.
163 – Men who killed had 3 times the number of children.
But they had no consistent control or punishment, so little authority or political organization.
CASE STUDY 2 – JAPANESE
He lookes at the Niiike villiage. C families, high in sexual activity control.
165 – They had high loyalty to the nation. They controlled their children from infancy on.
166 – Girls were more controlled than boys.
This created high C and infant C. These folks loved work.
They were also patriarchal and so high in V.
167 - Couples lived with the man’s parents, so the woman got harassed by the mother in law. This is a V former.
You’d expect them to be aggressive. But, no. Why? Heavy C based controls on behavior. Once these were removed, Japan turned violent and brutal.
They had hierarchy based on respect, not fear and low punishment.
168 – And they were flexible. High infant C makes people more willing to break with the past and consider new ideas. Societies that control infants are positive about change.
CASE STUDY 3 – EGYPTIANS
The Yanomamo and Japanese were high in V but low in childhood V. In Egypt we have high in V and high in child V.
169 – The Egyptians accepted polygyny. This means moderate C.
They were super patriarchal. And, women’s sexuality was controlled. This can be combined with affairs. Rather than being a natural result of patriarchy, limiting sexual activity (especially of women) maintains high C and V in a civilization.
170 – Female Genital Circumcision and sequestering women helps with economy it also makes people V and so aggressive.
Egyptian methods of childrearing were very V. Children were indulged. Later in life stress and whipping and slapping started. Big families push kids out into the world early.
173 – Acceptance of powerful and arbitrary authority is characteristic of societies which punish children severely in late adulthood. If rulers are nice to such people they resent them.
V also includes solidarity of local folks. We see this in Egypt.
173 – They had weak national identity. Nationalism comes from high infant C. This has made them tolerant of foreign rule.
They indulged infants and disciplined older children and so were strongly traditional.
174 – The Middle East is very resistant to modernization. They also have lots of conflict unless held down by fear.
175 – CASE STUDY 4 – CHINESE
The middle East folks are poor and fractious, but they are successful: fertile, aggressive and fervently attached to their cultures and religions. This is the usual pattern, control women’s sex, patriarchy, indulge infants, harshly treat older children.
India, Pakistan, the Middle East and China do this and so are traditional.
176 – There was freedom up until about five or six when they go to school and girl’s feet are bound. Punishment of older children is harsh.
177 – Men beat their wives and so anxiety is transmitted to infant sons.
But the Chinese are not as patriarchal as Egyptians, which suggests a lower V. Also there was more control of children prior to 5 than in Egypt.
178 – CASE STUDY 5 – MANUS
Mead found the Manus on tall houses over water, which meant the parents had to control the children to keep them from falling in. Children must learn to walk asap. Before that they cannot touch anything.
179 – The contrast with the complete lack of later training is striking.
180 – Biohistory would predict they would thus be high in infant C but low in child V and stress. Yes! They are strongly market oriented but poor at accepting authority.
They were heavy traders, worked hard, had wealth, but little political organization above the village.
181 – They were also obsessed with machinery. Late 18th and 19th Northern Europe was the same. They were also very moralistic and into property rights. But this religion had no connection to Christianity.
182 – Young women had only pain in intercourse. Young men got it via captives. They were strikingly high in C though no parental control in later childhood. This shows how important sexual control is.
Thus they had high infant C and low V (via lack of late punishment).
183 – Infant C is also linked to acceptance of change.
The generation that underwent Japanese occupation had ore stress and so accepted authority more and had more rigid beliefs.
184 – They formed the very authoritarian cargo cult after the war. The leaders railed for hours and people listened without batting an eyelid.
But this only lasted as long as that generation.
High C and low V is rare.
THE ORIGINS AND DECAY OF MANUS CHARACTER
Perhaps their recent civilization was selected to be sexually restrictive.
186 – Once they moved to the mainland their advantage in wealth declined, though they still think of themselves as superior.
CASE STUDY 6 – AMERICANS
New England in the 1950s.
187 – Babies slept separately from their mothers, in a separate room. Training was very early. Morals, toilet and walking started early.
2 – 5 years old were considered the most important ages for moral formation and so punishment happened.
188 - The genders were relatively equal. And there was no late childhood punishment. So we would expect low V. Guess what?
High infant C implies hard work, mechanical aptitude and strong impersonal loyalties. Mixed with a lack of punishment in late childhood makes these folks open to new ideas.
189 - A chart summarizes:
INFANT C: Flexible, Market Oriented, Hardworking, Machine Skills, Intense Preference for Rulers Similar in Culture, Language, Culture, Religion and Ethnicity.
CHILD V: Traditional, Accepts Authority, Larger States
STRESS: Authority based on fear, Large status differences
C: Hardworking, disciplined, delayed gratification.
V: Aggressive, High –Birthrate, Small Group Cohesion, Strong Local Leadership.
190 – SOCIETIES REFLECT TEMPERAMENT
People think societies have the same temperament. This shaped foreign policy for Iraq and Afghanistan.
The same is said for wealth.
Disparities are said to come from racism or disadvantage.
191 – East Asian nations have high C from Confucian teaching. A recent drop in V from western contact has made them more flexible and less authoritarian.
Foreign aid undermines C. So it increases poverty and corruption.
But the larger problem is that it aims at Western-type economic development, but without the temperament that was responsible for it.
192 – Aside from oil, the Arab nations are poor. This despite money and the modern contact necessary to learn it. 9 of 10 Saudis work in the public sector. Youth unemployment is 30%. Retail and construction jobs, for which they lack the temperament is dominated by expatriates.
Why? Lack of infant C. And, less control of children generally.
Then there is brutal punishment and other stresses in late childhood. This causes them to want autocratic governments and to descend into anarchy when such authority is lacking.
193 – Add Islam’s annual fast and you have very high V. But these are successful. Even wealth, which tends to corrupt, has not dissuaded these traditionalists.
HIGHER C MINORITIES IN THE MUSLIM WORLD
194 – Christians and, especially Jews, have done well as minorities because their temperament allows them to dominate trade.
Jews are high C low V. When mixing, their birthrates fall quickly. But they have lower infant mortality and this makes up for it.
195 – SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS
Childhood V comes from powerful authority from 6 – 12 years old.
Infant C from control and it creates economic success and flexibility and impersonal loyalties.
THE RISE OF THE WEST
In 1450 we would not expect much from Christian Europe. Russia had been under the Mongols forever. Population collapsed. Islam was on the rise, having taken back Palestine from the crusaders and still have much of southern Spain.
500 years later . . .
198 - One striking point about this is the apparent reluctance or inability of non-Western powers to adopt Western technology. Even Turkey – right on the European border.
Japan was the exception.
199 – Advanced civs have delayed marriage, reduced sexual activity, greater control of children, nuclear families, inhibition and reserve.
Conservatives note this less systematically. Also, they don’t know why the greatest period of creativity tends to happen after these family patterns begin to break down.
200 – DELAYED PUBERTY
Our first indication of rising C is the age of puberty. CR delays sexual maturation. Medieval menstruation was around 12 or 13.
Henry VII’s mother gave birth to him when she was 13, in 1457.
201 – LATER MARRIAGE
Food restricted species have later sex, waiting to establish territory. Child betrothal and marriage in early adolescence. were common in the Middle Ages. This was not just the elite.
202 – CONTROLS ON SEXUAL ACTIVITY
We see a steady rise in women’s marriage age in Europe from 1350 – 1830.
This may also be due to Christianity’s ascetic attitude towards sex causing stress.
204 - In the early church you could not have sex on Sundays as it messed up communion. Until the 9th century, Christianity was mostly confined to larger towns and monastic centers.
205 – From late antiquity to the Middle Ages, women were generally considered to be more lustful than men.
Expectations of sexual restraint in the Middle Ages seem to have been far more relaxed than in later times.
206 – Between the 11th and 14th centuries lay people became noticeably more religious. In the 11th and 12th centuries the church did reforms on a scale that would not be equaled until the time of the Reformation.
There was a crisis in 1032 when an avowed homosexual became Pope, Benedict IX held orgies and feasts, raped and murdered. Pope Leo IX followed with reforms.
207 – He made it so priests could marry. As the priests took on sexual and moral purity on and it spread through the population slowly. Though mostly for men as women were seen to be too lustful.
208 – In the second half of the 16th the Protestant Reformation created a new era of sexual austerity.
209 – The 1650 Commonwealth Adultery Act laid down the death penalty for female adultery and incest Brothel keepers were whipped.
210 – The late 17th / early 18th saw a quick break in the trend. But this liberation was reversed by the close of the 18th.
211 – By the mid-19th, sexual modesty was very strict. People did not talk of undergarments in public or even think of them.
212 – Modesty in women came to be seen as an inner quality stemming from a lack of desire. Men only had sex to reproduce and to ask for it for any other reason was considered ungentlemanly.
Victorians had especially extreme views on masturbation.
213 – The result was an explosion in the number of prostitutes. But, given the expense, disease, and moral disapproval, it is likely that most respectable men had very low levels of sexual activity.
214 – Prostitutes’ lust was proof of their downfall. Illegitimacy was higher among working class than upper class.
The lack of desire in women reflected unprecedented levels of C.
CONTROL OF YOUNG CHILDREN
CR rats spend more time with their children and are more efficient in gathering them back to the nest.
215 – There was harsh child training but not before the 3rd birthday.
Parenting manuals were becoming increasingly rigorous in the 16th and 17th centuries. By the 17th century, discipline started by weaning around two. Children were cured of infancy by 5.
216 – From the late 17th to the 18th and 19th they started in on infants.
217 – John Locke cited with approval whipping of infants. She didn’t stop at 7 or she would have spoiled the child forever.
219 – In nannies we see the deep-seated emotionally driven need to control and direct which is the essence of high C.
The small family unit is a type of social organization linked to calorie restriction and to food restricted environments. CR animals are less social. And, their social groups typically consist of a mated pair and their immature offspring.
If the family is intact, the people are high C.
The nuclear family grew from the late Middle Ages onward. From the 15th to the 19th there was an increased emphasis on privacy and intimacy between husband and wife. The emotionality of family increased.
Victorian middle-class home has been seen as a triumph of emotional sentimentality over the purely economic aspects of family life.
Victorians increasingly separated their families, not only from work, but from the local community.
221 – Seclusion and refuge from the outside world, ideally with a rural ambiance, became the ideal. Christmas became domesticated.
Heaven became seen as a place to be reunited with recently departed family.
INHIBITION AND RESERVE
The quick temper of the 16th and 17th was giving into reserve.
222 – The British were not always seen as stoic and reserved. As late as the 18th it was not insulting to consider someone sentimental.
The new culture of restraint and refinement included rules and regulations for sitting and walking and dinner manners. Passion was now frowned upon.
223 – The late medieval wedding was a boisterous community affair. By the 19th they were somber family affairs. Kissing, dancing, jumping and touching were no longer part of the ceremony.
Formally, with the mid 19th Crimean war the quite virtue of the soldier became a national virtue.
224 - IMPERSONAL LOYALTIES AND HIGH INFANT C
Cross-culturally we see that large political units are more a product of child V than C. The large empires of India, China and the Middle East came from this.
C in Europe did not result in larger states, but in states that were more centralized. This is because rising C, and especially infant C, increases impersonal attitudes and loyalties.
Until the 16th people were largely loyal to the local lord. If a baron took up arms against the king, people would follow the baron as he was closer and known.
225 – Civil wars happen when people still think strong personal loyalties mean people will follow them in uprisings against the state.
226 – Only in the 13th century did the king of France establish effective control over the country. Cohesion took a step back in the late Middle Ages. From the sixteen on loyalties more went to monarchs.
227 – The rule of law shows the same patterns. The Puritans were the highest C of England and were all for principles.
228 – Today Western nations vote for party, despite change in leadership. From 1100 to 1850 we see a rise in C and impersonal loyalties.
229 – Once borders were set in the 16th, they changed very little. Spain, Portugal, Switzerland, and many German states did not change. Conquest became harder because people felt loyalty to their nation.
230 – Rising infant C actually reduced the size of some empires. It freed Dutch from Spanish rule. And, 19th century Italians from German – Speaking Hapsburgs.
Also with high C ordinary men make effective soldiers. This change from knights to citizens is solidified by Napoleon.
231 - MARKET ECONOMY
Economic distribution via impersonal market economy rather than personal relationships is part of this.
In early English society farmers offered themselves, not money. During the English Civil War the more economically advanced areas supported parliament. Less advanced, the King.
Guilds and non-market regulatory systems declined. Usury became allowed.
232 - ATTITUDES TOWARDS WORK
Routine work is an aspect of high-C behavior of animals in food restricted environments, in that they must continually look for food.
The Middle Ages featured many holidays and feast days. In the 14th and 15th century the Lollards object to “time wasting.” And this was countered by strict observance of the Sabbath.
233 - By 1840 the average hours of work had risen to between 3,105 and 3,588 per year. By 1987 it was down to 1,856.
FALLING TIME PREFERENCE (THRIFT, INVESTING FOR THE FUTURE)
The preference for immediate consumption over long-term benefit is known as “time preference.” Hunter – gatherers have a very high time preference.
234 – Between 1200 and 1800 the Englishman’s rate of time preference fell to a remarkably low level.
There were more and more skilled workers as people invested in abilities.
LITERACY AND NUMERACY
Literacy and numeracy rose without any investment from the government from the Middle Ages to 1800. This when most folks were manual laborers.
In the 16th century about 40% of men signed their marriage certificates to 80 by 1800.
This is striking especially because competition meant the return on learning a skill dropped. It was less valuable and people were more willing to pursue it.
235 - RELIGION OF PRACTICAL MORALITY VERSUS RITUAL AND CHARITY
Codes get more stringent as people get more C.
When C is low, giving is based on sympathy without any moral principle. That is so now.
And, religious rituals are a code of behavior that can ask a little or a lot of you.
Honesty is a high infant C value that applies to all regardless of relationship, like Jewish ritual law. It also fits with high C folk being less social and so less skilled at lying.
236 – Popular religion in the Middle Ages, though not without ethical content, was largely concerned with ritual. Preaching was rare and in Latin. The strongest moral content was charity. And, this was undifferentiated like.
237 – The 13th century saw the beginnings of a stress on giving only to the respectable poor. Monastery hospitals were largely replaced by alms houses.
By the 16th the Reformation brings an emphasis on sermons, liturgy, fewer sacraments and lower status for priests.
238 – The one moral teaching less emphasized by the Protestant church was charity.
This continued until the 19th century; morals were now partially independent of religious belief. Honesty was big. Moral earnestness, rather than religious piety. Sacraments decreased and morality increased.
239 – To receive help, the poor had to agree to attend church.
240 Now workhouses of the 1830s and 1840s were designed to be austere, resemble prisons and discourage use. Upon entry to a workhouse, an inmate’s hair would be cropped and they had to give up their possessions.
241 – Most controversially, given the emphasis of Victorians on family, was those who came into workhouses had to come in as a family and men and women slept separately to increase moral fiber and prevent the breeding of new paupers.
This is evidence of rising C into the 19th.
242 - POPULATION GROWTH
Rising C contributed to population growth. V encourages fast breeding. But, C too, because it increases productivity and so the ability of the land to support more people and reduces the death rate from violence. It also can lead to better maternal care.
243 – Population growth peaked in 1200, 1550 and 1850; respectively doubled, quadrupled and 8 – 10 times.
SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
244 – Scientific temperament has no parallel in animal societies. But, with the Manus we linked it to early childhood control and infant C.
Shakespeare late 16th. In the 16th and 17th we get the birth of experimental science. Darwin late 19th.
Increased creativity and openness to new ideas is a clear indication of rising C, especially infant C, to the 19th century.
246 – TECHNOLOGY
Manus, with their intense control of children, were great with machinery. Japanese and Europeans too.
Interestingly, Victorian Britain was not interested in abstract theory. Some have called it ‘anti-intellectualism.’
248 – It is difficult to chart but tech levels grew to unprecedented levels in the 19th century.
THE INDUSTRIAL REVOLUTION
Why? Englishmen were harder working, more apt to invest in education, disciplined, better with machines, law abiding. Many theories, but infant C is the true one.
THE CIVILIZATION CYCLE
A C-forming tradition is essential to any prolonged rise in C but it is not enough. You need V too. This means stress, which peaked around the 16th century.
250 – The civilization cycle is introduced. This is a circle with
High V and stress and increase in C
SUSPICION, HOSTILITY and POLITICAL INSTABILITY
The Elizabethan age was one of glory in England, but it had severe stress, bad temper and suspicion.
251 – It had the signature steep / unstable status hierarchy. No Tudor monarch was deposed but their ministers fared less well.
252 – But after 1689 the situation became much more stable.
253 – By the 19th century there were new masculine expectations of peacefulness and self-control. This came from the gentry of the late 18th. Women were to be treated with respect.
There was a distinct change from the low stress early Middle Ages to the late 15th high stress to the early 17th with a fall, thereafter. So, there was a surge in stress just as C was rising most rapidly.
Flogging reached a height in the late 16th / early 17th centuries. This to children and undergraduates.
254 – In the 16th century, the whipping of beggars and vagrants.
255 -Beggars were marked with a V on the chest. Brutal death penalties.
Torture declined in the 17th, with the last case in the 1650s.
Only 33 executions between 1749 and 1799.
256 – The school beating of children also declined in the 18th century. We’re just continuing these trends of decreasing brutality since the 16th century.
257 – FORMALITY AND MARKED STATUS DIFFERENCES
Stressed societies have higher status differences. By the late 15th, seating was according to rank. This peaked in the early 17th. Middle ages men stood in the presence of their parents until invited to sit.
258 – But attitudes towards hierarchy started changing in the early 17th. This led to the rise of democracy in the 19th.
This started with the reform act of 1832 and within a few decades all men had the vote.
259 – There were similar patterns in other European countries.
Stress is uncomfortable. But what adult stress is the worst. This drives people to drug-taking, alcoholism and overeating. Religious asceticism is an opposite response. It is also more adaptive. It moves people to avoid stimulus and thus anxiety.
The popularity of monasteries peaks with stress.
THE CIVILIZATION CYCLE AND THE CAUSE OF HIGH STRESS
So C rose for a thousand years to 1850. Stress peaked in the 16th to early 17th. It fell slowly through the early 18th.
So stress peaked in 1550 and C rose. You can see above that it peaks in 1850.
Again high levels of cortisol reduce testosterone.
The C comes from a combo of stress with C promoting Christian tradition.
261 - But low C does not increase stress alone. Perhaps population density?
The status of women began to improve just as stress began to decline.
262 – By the 17th preachers are stressing companionship in marriage. Stress, also, does not promote patriarchy. Some peoples are stressed but not patriarchal.
A high level of V could explain the high level of stress in the 16th century. V reduces tolerance for crowding (a basic part of its biological function in that it encourages migration during famine).
REASONS FOR THE RISE IN V
What caused V to rise?
Periodic famine and harsh climate contribute. But more V came from Christianity. Restraints on sex promote V and C. The Bible, as interpreted, also encouraged childhood punishment. Also the annual Lenten fast.
263 – V modulates stress and causes a rise in C.
Infant C tends to undermine V: Why?
1) Infant C control of infants undermines the indulgence V requires.
2) Infant C promotes skeptical thought.
3) Infant C makes people prosperous.
In 1100 C was low and V started to rise due to stress.
This caused C to rise. But rising infant C undermines V! Causing the rise in V to slow and then stop around 1550.
C kept rising and V kept falling.
As V declined, C’s rise first slowed and then stopped around 1850.
Punishment of older children supports tradition, punishment of younger children undermines it.
264 – THE CIVILIZATION CYCLE IN JAPAN
Japan too had a dramatic rise in C over the past 1,000 years.
EVIDENCE OR RISING C IN JAPAN
The nuclear family became the rule in the whole country around 1603 – 1867 (the Tokagawa).
265 - There was also a decline in co-operative work.
The rise takes place in the more economically advanced areas first.
In India and China the key age for training is 6 on. Japan too.
The lower classes did not value women’s chastity before 1600. But Confucian and Samurai chastity ideas again grew in the Tokugawa. By mid-20th, marriages were arranged.
267 - The age of puberty was late until around 1910 too. A change of emphasis from ritual to behavior also happened.
Zen emphasized personal ethics and behavior.
269 – Literacy bloomed in the 18th and 19th centuries. Money was introduced in the 8th and 9th, but didn’t go anywhere. Then, sans government action, it bloomed in the 12th.
Industrialization in Japan went along with rapid population increases.
269 – And impersonal loyalities also rose, culminating in the union of the nation at the end of the 16th century. Adopting so much from the west since 1868 seems impersonal too.
As in Europe, the rise of C did not always result in larger political units, which tend to reflect child V.
270 - STRESS AND THE CIVILIZATION CYCLE IN JAPAN
Early Japan was low in both V and stress. The imperial codes from the 8th on were not into capital punishment due to Buddhism.
Around 1232 it seemed it was rising.
271 – A PEAK OF STRESS HAPPENED IN THE 15th and 16th CENTURIES
The Ashikaga period (1336 – 1573) was brutal.
The late 15th and 16th had local rulers with absolute control and brutality.
272 – The stress made for high V and confience and energy, the Japanese traders moved into South East Asia and in the 1590s invaded Korea to conquer China.
Also the authority of husbands growing shows a rise in V.
DECLINING STRESS FROM THE 17th CENTURY
United under shoguns, the nation was united from 1603 – 1868 (The Tokugawa period). Ministers stopped being executed.
By the 18th, rather than beating, affection guided parenting. The punishment of children was not common in the 20th century.
273 – So while there is clear evidence of a fall in stress since the 16th, a far more conservative regime and society may have slowed the decline. This may be why the peak in C happened a century later than in Europe.
274 – THE SAME PATTERN IN EUROPE AND JAPAN
C rose and family patterns were the same in both Japan and Europe. In both there was a peak in stress around the 16th and then a fall.
But to understand details, we need to go back to biology and lemmings.
C creates impersonal loyalties; they republican and then democratic institutions. Higher population and market orientation too. It happens with a surge in V and stress peaking around the 16th century.
But why so many anomalies?
C AND V STRATEGIES IN LEMMINGS AND MUSKRATS
Lemmings live near the sub-arctic regions of Eurasia and North America.
276 – Every few years their numbers expand massively and they lose their fear of humans. They even start swimming and go out to sea. Many drown which gives the myth of them committing suicide.
The cycles are 3 – 4 years.
Muskrats do the same, but it is around 10 years. Larger populations are more resistant to disease, have larger litters, breed earlier and tolerate more crowding.
In the decline, the opposite.
277 – During the decline, the territory doesn’t decline so they have lower density.
278 – In growth they are like high V species. In decline, they are like C.
The farther north the shorter the cycles. Harsh climate makes for more frequent cycles.
279 – EXPLANATIONS FOR LEMMING CYCLES
Early explanations focused on population density. But, the cycles are independent of density – we have found. Even folks in low density areas share in the decline.
Population levels seem to be a result of the cycle rather than the cause.
280 – THE BIOLOGICAL FUNCTION OF LEMMING CYCLES
It is advantageous to have bold animals that can periodically move out and colonize new lands.
But, bold animals get eaten. During the decline years, predator’s populations drop precipitously. And, the predators cannot breed fast enough to take advantage of the peak population years.
The farther north the greater the need for migration, which is why they cycles are bigger and more frequent there.
WHAT ARE LEMMING CYCLES?
Like baboons, they are both gregarious and don’t like density? Thus density stresses them and they migrate. This paradox will be explained later.
281 – In the decline phase the animals are more territorial. The decline populations are more like gibbons.
All animals have such cycles and there should be epigenetic markers. But, the main evidence is fluctuations in societies historically.
282 – Lemming cycles and civilization cycles seem to happen without reference to each other, much like waves and tide. It is also hypothesized that changes in C during lemming cycles are much less than in civilization cycles.
MODELING THE LEMMING CYCLE
Human lemming cycles range from 260 years to 300 years long.
Animals move when there is more population, so we’d guess that those from larger families would have higher V due to being supplanted at weaning. At the decline phase, lower birth and more death from infectious disease.
LEMMING CYCLES IN HUMAN POPULATIONS – INITIAL MODELS AND PREDICTIONS
G indicates when this behavior should peak in relation to growth with a human population.
G (growth) (max number of children)
G-30 V peaks at G + 30 War!
G-60 low church Child V peaks G + 60 Authority!
And open to new ideas.
Infant C peaks at (G-90) G + 90 = High Church
C peaks at G – 120 G +120
Good econ. No war.
Lowest G (pop. decline) (g-150)
Behavior and attitudes
High birth rate, low death rate; patriotism and national unity; and peak economic growth.
G + 30
Aggressive warfare, confident, patriarchal, migration
G + 60
Child V, Lowest Infant C (like the Egyptian village)
Autocracy, weak local loyalties and so accept any sufficiently powerful authority, traditional, big empires; People favor humanities.
Religious Orthodoxy; high science.
Low birth rate, high death rate
C, Low V
Economic growth, least warlike
Infant C, lowest child V
Local and hereditary Loyalties are strong; like leaders who are similar in culture and language (ignore distant rulers) autocracy weak, open to change. People like technical subjects.
Religious independence, renaissance and open to new ideas.
286 - The population growth (hence G years) in England were 1230, 1550, and 1850. But actually the pop peaked in 1870 due to a war cycle on the lemming cycle! But the 19th was high growth as predicted.
1400 and 1700 were the bottoms.
The first lemming cycle was 320 years and the second 300 years.
287 – G-120 POPULATION DECLINE OR STAGNATION
Thus the bottom happens around the Black death (1348). But by the black death the population had been falling since 1300.
288 – The victims were already weak from malnutrition. But real wages were higher in the low growth 15th century than before. There was just less resistance to disease. People also seem to have had fewer children.
289 – Ditto the late 17th century. Death rose, birth fell, even among the wealthy.
290 – This holds for wealthy peers.
291 – This is why the last great pandemic happened in 1665, 35 years prior to the G-150 year.
292 – G PERIOD BEHAVIOR – NATIONAL UNITY AND ECONOMIC GROWTH
In high G times we see a positive patriotism, wherein people support their rulers.
293 - The first G is 880. The English were reduced to Wessex. But they rallied back with a centralized resistance, defeated the Danes and reunited under Edward the Elder.
In the lemming cycle we see a RAPID rise from anarchy to unity followed by a slow decline into unity.
The recovery of G-90 is 1140 was swift, centered on the G year 1230. The monarchs, Henry II, Richard I and Edward I were powerful and effective.
Then by the 14th, disorder was coming in. There was a peak in the G – 90 year, 1460.
294 - Then a swift rise again in1485 leading to the powerful Henry’s daughter, Elizabeth (1558 – 1603).
This weakened in the 17th and we get aristocratic dominance in 1760 or G-90.
In the 19th we get the growth peak at 1850. Britain rises to national power.
We get unexpected combinations; when G peaks we get the most economic growth. This is not a period of high C, so it is strange. The idea that the C does not go down so fast that it counters the benefits of higher G energy and national unity make up for the drop in C..
295 – LOCAL LOYALTIES AND FEUDAL DISORDER AT G-90
The G-90 points for Britain are 1140, 1460 and 1760.
Here infant C peaks. And we expect to see Local Loyalties strong; like leaders who are similar in culture and language (ignore distant rulers) autocracy weak, open to change.
And, in 1140 we do see succession wars in Britain.
296 – 1460 is another year of decentralized authority and chaos, from Henry VI coming to power through Richard the III.
The common explanations are not adequate. It is not enough that there was no heir. Bloody Mary was deeply unpopular, but there was no rebellion .
297 – Around 1460 we see a profusion of local conflicts.
298 – The next G-90 is 1760. And at this time the monarch’s power was stripped.
The strength of the government reflects the temperament of the people.
Since C was already high, in 18th century aristocracy’s strength did not result in feudal chaos as it had in the 1140s and 1450s. But, the aristocratic classes instead formed parliament.
299 – G + 30 AGGRESSIVE WARFARE, MIGRATION
The predicted G+30 points are 1260, 1580 and 1880.
In the 1280s Edward I conquered Wales and briefly subdued Scotland in the 1290s.
Then they ebbed and for more than a century England made no serious attempts to coquer anyone. Then in the late 16th,Frances Drake led attacks on the Spanish shipping and led to the 1588 Spanish Armada against England.
The 1880 one we’ll look at in the next chapter.
300 – G+60 WEAK LOYALTIES, ACCEPTANCE OF POWERFUL AUTHORITY
The predicted G+60 points are 1290, 1610 and 1910.
Here we would expect local loyalties to be weak and the acceptance of powerful authority. And, we find it.
Half of Edward’s Welsh invasion army was Welsh. Edward was able to cow the English nobility.
In the next period, 1610 we see the unity of English and Scottish crowns. This is a powerful sign of reduced local loyalties.
In the next one, 1910 gets us the founding of the League of Nations.
301 – RELIGIOUS INDEPENDENCE AT G-90; ORTHODOXY at G+90
Two factors determine independence of thought versus tradition. Infant C makes people open to change. Child V promotes tradition.
The peaks are 30 years past where expected. Why? Perhaps G itself, with its energy and optimism, promotes independent thinking. But the pattern is consistent.
At G-60 people are less orthodox. Priests have lower status. This peaks at non-conformist Protestantism.
302 – Religious independence peaks at (G-60): 1170, 1490, and 1790.
Orthodoxy peaks at (G+90): 1310, 1640, and 1940.
Between 1170 and 1290 the inquisition was formed. The G year of 1200 marked the beginning fo the change to orthodoxy.
1490 saw a lot of anti-clericalism. Monestaries were in decline. Bequests to churches were in decline. In 1536 – 1541 it was easy for Henry VIII to dissolve the monestaries. It was late, but he had lots of power.
Religious division peaked with the Civil War over religion in 1642. Dueling orthodoxies.
The number of bible editions peak in the 1630s. They hit a low point in the 1740s and 50s.
304 – There is an overall increase in secularism, so he looks at attendance relative to registered.
305 – RENAISSANCE AND ENLIGHTENMENT AT G-60
This is the same peak as the religious independence: 1170, 1490, and 1790.
It fits roughly, though the full English renaissance is a tad later, possibly due to greater security and wealth under the Tudors.
There is another late 18th century Enlightenment which is best exemplified by the French Revolution.
306 – SCIENCE IN THE G + 90 PERIOD
Though G + 90 is a time of orthodoxy it also seems to be a time of peak science. Empirical science and Okham’s razor go back to 1310. In 1640 we get the first descriptions of blood’s circulation. Newton is in the 1660s.
The next G + 90 is the 1940s. So much happened then. It is an expression of high C.
TECHNICAL EDUCATION AT G-90; HUMANITIES at G + 60.
G-90 is the peak of infant C and the low point of child V. People like technical and practical subjects.
At G + 60 we have the low point of infant C and peak of child V. People then favor the humanities.
This is traced via students enrolled at Oxford and Cambridge. The more in these schools the bigger humanities.
308 - High V, low infant C civilizations, like India, China and the Middle East all show a bias towards the arts and humanities. People here major in humanities even though no jobs await them. This makes for big government employment.
309 – G-120 LATER AGE OF MARRIAGE.
Remember, the latest age of marriage was in the late 17th and early 18th, NOT when C peaked in the 19th century. Why? Lemming cycles predicts it though pure C peak time does not.
REVISED LEMMING CYCLE
G is a period of national unity, unexpectedly.
Economic growth is highest at G, not infant C time. Why? Perhaps G’s high energy and optimism, alongside population growth.
311 – LEMMING CYCLES IN FRANCE
G years in France, 340, 780, 1160, 1510, 1775.
Populations are like their neighbors. Going back to Rome, we have more info for France and their population has remained stable.
The whole empire followed Roman lemming cycles, more or less.
The Frankish state disintegrated to G-90 in 690 and was recentralized under Martel from 718 to 741. It peaked with his grandson Charlemagne. G at 780 under Charlemagne.
The religious patterns also fit. Charles Martel at G-60 year 720 could despoil the church. But Charlemagn’es son “Louis the Pious was in 870 – G+90.
Also the plagues of 541 are gone by 750 (when G is up).
313 - There is a steady decline of central authority until the chaos of the 11th century. The low of royal power is at G-90 year of 1070 with Henry I.
The slow decline leads to a rapid recentralization. Louis the Fat did this as G year of 1160 approached.
314 - The French cycles are some 80 years in advance of the English ones.
As always, the rise up in the lemming cycle was swift, Joan of Arc brought it up. And Louis XI was similar to Henry VII of the next generation.
315 – Louis XIV (1643 – 1715) surviving the challenges of 1640 on is the one striking exception to biohistory’s model, in France, for which we have no explanation.
Being ahead of your neighbor is not a boon. The French were 80 years ahead in decline during the 100 Years War.
Liberty, Fraternity, Equality is a very C slogan in that it is abstract and makes people like central authority.
France reached its population peak at 1770, far in advance of other European nations. This explains their fervent nationalism and the imperial aggression under Napoleon.
By 1870 The French were 70 years after their G and the Germans 25 years before theirs.
316 – In 1940, France reached it’s low point of G. In 1930, the French became the first European nation whose births fell below replacement levels. On paper their 1945 army equaled Germany’s. But Germany was at +50 and full of V and big.
As the Dark Ages give way to civilization, lemming cycles get shorter.
LEMMING CYCLES IN JAPAN
Japan and Europe, but also Japan and China do not have their cycles in any synch.
G in Japan = 720, 1200, 1590 and 1925
G-90 = 630, 1110, 1500, 1835
720 is Japan’s G and so the 8th century becomes a peak of power.
317 – Their power then declines to where G-90 is hit at 1110. The recovery is quick and G is again at around 1200.
Also consistent with this is a passion for foreign (Chinese) ideas around G-60 of 1140.
318 – They have G at 1590 and then centralize their army and attack Korea at 1592 and 1597. This means G + 30 at 1620.
G + 90 they reject the West at 1680. G-150 seems to have happened at 1775. (that due to available population records). Leading round to G at 1925.
319 - We would then expect local loyalties the weakest at 1835 (G-90). At this time fiefdoms acted with great independence. Sometimes the G comes quickly after the G-90. We see this here too. But, we also see at G-60 we get openness to new ideas and an infatuation with Western ways.
On and after G in 1925, wars, wars, wars.
C + 90 is conservative and that is 2015 for the Japanese. And, low childbirth.
320 – Once again as C rises, the cycles get shorter.
The cycles are not even, they are stretched between G + 60 and G – 90. This is when V is falling.
Lemming cycles in animals tend to be longer in southerly areas with less extreme climate variation and where V would be lower. So it is odd that high V stretches V’s decline in our human cycles.
321 – CULTURE SHOCK
Culture shock happens when a population is overrun by an alien one, such as Europe on South America in the 16th or the Pacific Islands in the 19th. It is associated with a massive fall in V: this saps energy, confidence, resistance to disease and interest in having children.
The local population drops drastically and alcoholism ensues.
322 – In Central and South America, in the early 1500s, we should see death from small pox being worst in the first few decades. But the population fell for more than a century.
Also, the mountain state of Tlaxcala helped the invaders and their population stabilized after a big decline, while the Aztecs continued to drop.
The Tlaxcalans who moved North actually saw their population increase! This though they got the same exposure.
Peoples who had strict premarital sex taboos had the least culture shock. Arabs, Indians and Samoans. The free sex Tahitians had a huge drop.
323 – So perhaps invasion launches a lemming cycle when V is falling. The biggest impact should happen 70 years after impact.
324 – RECOVERY FROM CULTURE SHOCK
The recover should then be 210 years after shock. Cortes hit Tenochtitlan in 1520 and we see a recovery in 1730 and 1920 (just after Mex revolution).
326 – This predicts another Mexican peak in 2010.
All recovered except the Tasmanians who died out. Perhaps because they had the lowest C ever recorded. Their political organizations, for example, were tiny.
327 – Mainland folk had relatively higher C and so could deal with abstractions and integrate better.
SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS
Lemming cycles are shorter and more intense in bad (northern) climates.
People born at G have high confidence, resist disease well and are nationalistic.
328 – At G+90 people have low C and accept authority. C + 90, religious orthodoxy. At G – 150 plagues happen.
At G – 90 infant C is high because there is chaos and disorder. This leads to C behaviors and rapid recovery. The G-60 is therefore a time of renaissance andnew ideas. Infant C and rising G energy are coming together.
Lemming cycles are a factor in creating war. But also maternal anxiety and testosterone.
WW I and II seem odd as they happened after a century of peace (Franco – Prussian excluded).
BIOHISTORY AND THE ORIGINS OF WAR
Warfare is more likely when political units are small due to low C. (War B4 Civ is cited).
330 – But beyond a certain level of C, high V presages war. This is especially true if there are harsh environs where good and bad times alternate.
V is also promoted by patriarchy. This makes women anxious. This is also high when the mother son bond is broken precipitously at age 2 by another kid.
Arabs and Mongols fit this description.
TESTOSTERONE SURGES FROM C BEING LOWER THAN INFANT C
High control of women gives infants C. These men grow up with freedom, which lowers their C. This give high T.
331 – C rose to a peak in mid-19th century Europe. But, in the late 19th, it started dropping. Thus the declining age of puberty.
This means T would go up. Especially in Germany which had a decline in puberty of nearly 3 years in a half century. The decline was much less in the US and Sweden.
THE GREAT WAR
Colony grabs went way up.
And, people felt profound emotional bliss at WW I.
334 – Germany’s decision to attack all these nations was irrational. About 1910 the Japanese age of puberty began to fall. It fell less than Germany, but they were primed by being more patriarchal.
336 – SURGES IN V AFTER POPULATION GROWTH PEAKS
The highest V should be at the peak of population growth.
Whenever nations in the Europe and Japan had peak population, their militancy rose accordingly, with war 25 years later.
The population grew rapidly between 1750 and 1790 peaking in the 1770s.
338 – So Napoleon was greeted enthusiastically. And, this was fierce as it happened in a high C civilization.
339 – As the population declined, so did militancy. They lost the Franco-Prussian in 1870.
Great Britain’s population peaked in 1800 – 1810, but there was no war. Why? Because C was really high and kept high. This kept T low. Victorians did so until the end of the 19th. They were, though, brave in the Boer war.
341 – Population growth peaked from 1860 – 90 so ferver peaked around 1900.
GERMANY AND AUSTRIA
Their population peaked in the 1890s. This generation came to prominence in 1914. Austria was just slightly later.
343 – RUSSIA
Too! Up until the war so also high V in the 1917 revolution.
344 – ITALY
Too! Actually it peaked in 1915 and so in 1935 Mussolini invaded Ethiopia.
Spain was fascist in 1939, but stayed neutral in the war, not like Italy.
Peaked in the 1920s and 1930s. But they were more patriarchal. Kamikaze!
THE AMERICAN CIVIL WAR
346 – The US pop grew rapidly from 1689 – 1760. By mid 18th century we were 7 centimeters taller than Europeans.
Between 1720 and 60 there was a demographic explosion. In 1774 we were ready to fight anything and anybody. The uprisings were spontaneous.
347 – Pop peaked at 1810 and so the Mexican American War and Manifest Destiny.
The MA war was 25 years after our G. Our birth rates fell rapidly after 1825.
349 - But not as fast in the South. SO the South had a G at 1840. And war 20 years later.
350 – The Civil War was made worse by the high C of infant discipline creating discipline.
Most countries have a surge in births just after major wars. This is somewhat due to delayed births.
351 – It seems the V which drives major wars is more of a product of the lemming cycle than population growth.
AGGRESSION ARISING FROM TRAUMA EXPERIENCED IN INFANCY
To get this, we need to return to the fact that anxious mothers, indulgent, with an abrupt separation around 2 makes the greatest V.
The most typical cause of mother anxiety is patriarchy. It makes women anxious because they are subordinated to men. And, a fault finding mother in law can serve the same purpose. And, we get high V if this ends abruptly around 2.
352 – Thus those born in the last two years of war will have the highest V.
Those born during the Six Day War were more anxious and liars and likely to run away from home when older. They were also more socially withdrawn, irritable and hyperactive.
Wars often break out 20 – 25 years after the last major conflict. Examples from China back this up.
354 – THE SECOND WORLD WAR
We might expect aggression from those between 1943 and 45 in the US. They hit their early 20s between 1963 and 1966. Vietnam and unrest going into 1968.
Iranians born during the Iran Iraq war elected Ahmadinejad president around 2005.
The Great Wars were a perfect storm. Rising T, patriarchal families and peak birth rates.
356 – EXCEPTIONS
This doesn’t make war inevitable. Those yelling at the Great Satan didn’t launch one. Rational calculation helped here.
Sweden’s high C kept it out of war. They were also less patriarchal.
The 1960s protests happened in the US and Europe and Japan.
357 – CONCLUSION
The propensity of a society to make war depends on several factors. Harsh living, especially famine. Anxiety that drops at 2 (patriarchy and high birthrates make this happen), (major war too).
People in their early 20s have a particularly high impact on nations going to war. It is the cohort to watch.
RECESSION AND TERROR
So far we have seen the effects of two major cycles: civilization cycles and lemming cycles. Both of which are linked to population growth and decline.
Civilizaiton cycles show rapid population growth in the high – C period. Lemming cycles sow most growth around G.
360 – Populations decline during depressions and recessions. But there is another factor: populations drop even more sduring prosperity. These are also times of hedonism and rapidly falling C.
361 – Political turmoil and recessions are more likely to happen during birth rate troughs.
WHY RECESSIONS OCCUR
Stress happens before recessions and in fact causes it (not the reverse).
362 – This is a rise in stress, most of all, In the in influential youth generation. Chronic ACTH rise leads to fear and a lack of confidence.
First V makes people intolerant of crowding. Second, people with lower C have more T and so are hedonistic and pleasure seeking – they want stimulation.
This includes events that bring a sense of danger. Anything that sets the heart a thumping is stressful. These folks have less anxiety as high testosterone reduces anxiety. But, their lifestyle raises stress.
People with high C have low T and avoid crowds and other stimuli.
363 – Two people with the same level of V will have different outcomes based on their life styles. And just because one seeks out stress and makes it happen doesn’t mean it doesn’t lead to heart attacks.
364 - THE BOOM
Both C and V have been falling in the past century. V faster than C. This means the preference for high levels of stimulus has been increasing as C declines, but tolerance for stimulus has also increased due to declining V.
There have been periods when the fall of C has been especially rapid. In such periods the desire for stimulus (set by C) increases faster than the tolerance for it (set by V), leading to a rise in stress.
Those growing up in tough times have higher C and vice versa. The most concervative will experience tough times between 5 and 18, which raises C and Child V.
365 – The 1890s generation had recession so the people born about 1895 would have okay C. Those coming of age from 1905 on would prefer to avoid stimulus, and this would reduce the stress of society in general. Thus the recession eases.
But the prosperity after 1900 meant men coming of age in the 1920s had lower C. This made for more hedonism.
366 – As a result, the birth rate plummeted. Both V and C are associated with the desire for children. In the 1920s birthrates and C fell rapidly.
The 1920s high T led to optimism and a boom. Anxiety is associated with gambling and poor judgment, high T adds risk taking exuberance.
367 – THE CRASH
Peak of stress made the crash worse than it needed to be.
When C falls faster than V and there is stress, it is unpleasant. People are angry, fearful or both. They suspect others of ill will. This attracts them to groups like the Nazis and communism.
370 – Both legitimize hostility and anger.
This accounts for the Commies and Fascists fighting in Spain in the 1930s.
371 – In Russia in the 1890s kids were brutalized and there was infanticide. Domestic violence was also endemic. Not uncommonly, this led to death.
There was also a decline in C, so sexual mores were declining.
Thus were folks primed to brutal governments in Germany and Russia.
372 – To us, such behaviors (taking dictators) makes no sense. But, we’re not primed to see treachery around every corner. We’re not primed to submit to brutal authority.
We see the top attacking the bottom in stressed baboon colonies too.
373 – Stalin was the product of the stress, rather than the cause of it. And, as the stress ebbed in the 30s and 40s, so terror without any need of regime change.
But in the zoo, we had the effects of crowding. In the 1930s we had the appearance of crowding. When lower C folks went into the city seeking out excitement. It was what they wanted, but created stress.
Stressed animals and people give higher status individuals more power.
The control of the economy, even in the US, made no sense. They made businessmen keep prices high as people were hungry. But, they wanted a powerful controlling leader (FDR) and he said “there is nothing to fear but fear itself.
While different in amount, it was not different from the kind of stress that Stalin and Hitler rode in on. It was the low C generation reaching maturity in the 1920s, they were likely to be out of work and susceptible to ideologies of hate.
374 – The baby bust of the 1930s is often attributed to the depression. But, birth rates usually drop faster in good times. These were people of the 1920s not having kids.
The 1830s too saw a low birth rise and potential for extremism that was only halted by the 1832 act.
375 – People born after 1925 had poverty and higher C (or at least a slowing in decline). As they matured in the 1940s they avoided stimulation. They had the baby boom of the 1950s. These folks knew only prosperity and so had miniskirts. Again, as in the 1920s, the birthrate plummeted.
War has little impact on this. There was a bust after WW I and a boom after WW II.
As stress rose, the optimism of the early 1960s turned to anger and pessimism.
The generation with prosperity led to the housing speculation. When this crashed and the stock market crashed, people dropped in T and so became risk averse. Interest rates have been slashed, but investment hasn’t gone up again.
A crash is a stress attack, not financial as such.
377 - CONCLUSION
So, along with civilization cycles and recession cycles we have recession cycles. (This theory is not parsimonious).
It has been noted that recession cycles are regular, but not tied to biology.
WHY REGIMES FALL AND CIVILIZATIONS COLLAPSE
Of course tools are important in creating civilization. But cultural tools that impact C and V are also important. These cultural technologies have been honed in competition over centuries.
C brings economic success and V military success. Both traits contribute to larger and more stable political units. C makes people law abiding and infant C promotes political loyalties like to the code of law.
V promotes acceptance of tradition and authority.
In Japan and Europe the rise of C has been steeper than can be accounted for by cultural evolution. It seems that C is driven by high levels of V and stress.
As C rises high it undermines V and both fall. As V and stress rise, Cincreases. This is the civilization cycle.
380 – C peaked in Europe in 1850 and in Japan in 1920.
History doesn’t just go up like “developing nations” theory in a straight line. Nations break down.
THEORIES OF DECLINE
Vico’s New Science said we go from savagery to civility to barbarism. He thought this psychological.
383 – REGIME CHANGE
No Chinese dynasty has ever survived the G-90 wherein loyalties become local and personal.
The period after G can also see regime changes: the French Revolution is an example: people have the energy to seek a new impersonal powerful regime.
When two regimes clash, where they are in the civilization cycle is crucial.
384 - Groups with higher C and especially V, tend to overcome groups with lower C and V.
385 - Loss of C and V among rulers causes them to be replaced. Loss of C and V among the general population means they will be replaced.
We have looked at how C and V fall and rise according to people’s behavior.
But C and V also respond to food shortage, chronic in the case of C and occasional but severe in the case of V.
386 – V falls first. V plus stress = a rise in C. And, it falls for centuries before C starts dropping. V is more quickly affected by wealth and population density.
This explains why Chinese scholar gentry rarely persist for more than a few generations, even in the absence of barbarians.
PROSPERITY COUNTERS V-PROMOTERS AND C-PROMOTERS
Humans have a naturally low set point for C and V. We’re adapted to be gatherer hunters.
387 – The raising of C and V may have started a long time ago in elaborate incest rituals and taboos that put local women beyond the pale of men.
These C folks would expand as a percentage of the population. And, people follow the successful. The same happens with competition between communities.
This would have happened much faster once farming spread.
388 – Naturally occurring famines and food shortages would have kept these levels up.
Not only prosperity but population density undermines V. V is highest when someone experiences a lower level of anxiety as an adult than they did in infancy.
For example, if your mother is stressed as you’re young and you have low stress as a high level adult male. High density populations make adults more anxious and so it reduces V.
389 – PROSPERITY MAY INCREASE AGGRESSION IN THE SHORT-TERM
When marginal folks get food, they first may have a boom in population. This is a V promoter.
And rats with calorie-restricted mothers but ample food in later life had higher testosterone than those for whom food was always ample.
Ditto for cortisol. Higher in infancy than adulthood increases V.
That’s why prosperity lowers V in the long term, but raises it in the short term.
390 – High C and V may also raise the population. Rapid population growth slows the rate at which V declines. This is all biological and independent of culture.
The most aggressive folks tend to be those who were in marginal areas and suddenly get access to plentiful food.
392 – BARBARIANS AND CIVILIZATION
As civilizations fall their loyalties become more personal.
Conquests are made more likely by barbaian’s tendency to adopt the civilization’s C and V-promoting cultural technologies before they invade. This gives them a beter ability to organize, have bigger groups and organize and be more warlike.
Civilizations have major advantages over barbarians. But they can get super lazy too due to wealth and population density.
394 – If the C and V of the general population is low, the entire population may be replaced. Anglo-Saxons who colonized Britain got rid of all but those in Wales. The Normandy invaders only replaced the top echelon.
POPULATION DENSITY, WEALTH, and DECLINING V
More than a little stress tends to lower V. This can lowered by increasing infant C. This causes wealth, which also undermines V.
395 - DECLINING V and C in WEALTHY URBAN ELITES
To get a better understanding of the process we will look at 3 urban elites that suffered decline in V and C. It led to a decline in all good things, including interst in family and children.
THE FUJIWARA FAMILY, 11th CENTURY AD
396 – Consistent with low V is that the women held relatively high status in the court.
The society was based on artistic expression with an emphasis on dress and poetry. They wrote great Tales of Genji. Materpieces.
They had no martial vigor.
397 – CHINESE SCHOLAR – GENTRY
Studies show their rapid decline and a drop in interest in their children and grandchildren.
AMERICAN THIRD GENERATION WEALTHY, 20th CENTURY
398 – The families invested in public service have held their wealth longer. Rockefellers and Kennedy’s are the examples.
399 – Both the French and Russian revolutions were driven by poorly fed parts of the population who had had rapid growth. In fact the revolutions happened at or near the peak of population growth.
400 – After US intervention, Cuba had a high birthrate in the 1930s.
Mao had success in the Shanxi provinces which are bitterly cold and known as the ‘birthplace of Chinese dynasties.” The Zhou in the 11th BC, the Qin in the late 3rd BC and the Tang at the start of the 7th AD.
Another harsh area gives rebellions.
402 – There is evidence that there is severe famine two generations earlier with rapid population increase before the consequential political events.
Rome’s fall has long fascinated people.
Before the fall, we’ll look at the spread of C and V promoting technologies in early farming societies in the Mediterranean region.
EARLY FARMING SOCIETIES AND RISING C
404 – The need for C temperaments to emerge may explain why it took so long for agriculture to catch on. Farming in the Middle East dates back to 9500 bc. There is no obvious physical reason for such a slow spread.
405 – It seems people brought it in from the middle east. Mitochondrial and Y – chromosomes show this.
People imitate those of higher status. Cultural technologies take time to evolve.
THE RISE OF ROME
Women were not secluded, but guarded in early Rome and their chastity was important.
Etruscans brought this custom and others. But Local Romans obsessed on their rituals. And the Etruscans were much freer in their attitudes towards sex. Both of these may explain why the Romans beat their Etruscan teachers.
408 – WHile high, this would have been less than that created by 19th century Europe.
In the early state Rome was ruled by Kings, suggesting low C. They around 509 BC it threw out the kings and became a republic.
409 – People meekly abided by orders. They were super duty filled.
410 – Cato said farming produced virtuous citizens, not commerce or usury.
He campaigned against lax morals and defended the old laws limiting the amount of jewelry you could wear. And heavily taxing women’s luxury items.
Cato ate his breakfast cold, dressed simply and lived in a simple house. He had high C and C promoting habits.
411 – DECLINING V AND STRESS
412 – Stress peaks around 550 BC. Stress declines. At that time, the 12 tables protect people from arbitrary persecution. Stress is falling. C peaks around 250 BC.
FROM RISING TO FALLING C- THE DECLINE OF THE REPUBLIC
Cato was considered old fashion in his time. Aristocrats came to be known for their charm and generosity, rather than their austerity. The decline in C was also driven by the enormous wealth brought in by the punic wars. Sallust wrote:
“When Carthage, the rival of Rome’s sway, had perished root and branch, and all seas and lands were open, then Fortune began to grow cruel and to bring confusion into all our affairs.”
By the 2nd century, the birth rate was falling rapidly.
414 – The standards of sexual behavior were loosening. Divorce rose.
Vast slave estates rose. Reducing the number of peasant farmers who had been the backbone of the Roman army.
Slaves are only profitable when wage labor is in short supply. They need to be bought, managed and controlled.
415 – Low C people have low patience for tedious farming. This was the result of rural depopulation, not the cause of it. Reformers like Gaius Gracchus tried to do reforms by giving landless peasants land to farm. But this was reversed.
416 – This change in temperament made for a gap between rich and poor. Land was available. Ex-farmers became dependent on government handouts.
417 – By the late Republic women could manage their own businesses and property.
Declining C makes people market oriented. But punishment in late childhood makes people more traditional. This is less favorable to market economy. But they may have become better at business just as they lost their taste for farming.
418 – First V drops. Then C then infant C. Infant C is most associated with flexible market thinking. So as C passes its peak we have market economies do well for a while.
So some changes in the early stages of C’s drop, in Roman, were good. Creativity and markets went up. The government was less brutal and more democratic. Women gained more independence.
419 – As part of this fall people got fixed on popular entertainment. The citizens used their growing political clout to get subsidized and, eventually, free grain. So many no longer needed to work. Loyalties were turning from state to family. And, for soldiers, from state to commander.
420 has a graph wherein the trajectory of the republic shows V and C decline.
421 – CHANGES IN CHILDREARING
There is evidence, confirming biohistory, of reduced harshness and increased sentimentality towards children (lower child V) and reduced control (lower C). These were accompanied by less interest in having children. This is familiar.
During the Republic it was seen as unseemly to mourn an infant’s passing. It was seen as inappropriate for an adult to give a child attention as late as the time of Cicero (106 – 43 BC). But less than 2 centuries later, Quintilian was completely devastated by the death of his two sons.
Happiness began to take precedence over discipline.
422 – There was also a change in patriarchy and deference. During the Republic the rule of the Pater Familias meant absolute daddy rule.
Sons could not purchase property, sign contracts or make career choices without daddy.
423 – As leniency arose, the children that were had were raised by servants and slaves.
424 – THE ROMAN EMPIRE
People knew debauchery had taken over.
425 – By the beginning of the 1st century AD, Roman C and V had been falling for several hundred years. Trade was declining in Italy, but still big across the empire.
The question is not, why Rome fell, but why it lasted so long. The answer is that Italian born citizens no longer ran it. We can see this by looking at the most prominent writers and poets of the late Republic / Early empire. The later the period the farther afield the luminaries are born.
428 - Those migrating to the provinces would gain C. Those coming to Rome would lost C within a generation or two. Many slaves became prominent. They would have had higher C levels.
Rome brought stability and peace to areas that had higher C. This allowed them to rise.
429 –Personal loyalties started to undermine the Empire. The Emperor was too distant to serve as a focus of loyalties. So large estates became beyond government control. They protected their own.
430 – POULATION DECLINE
By the 2nd AD many couples were childless.
Plentiful food in early life seems to lower sperm count.
431 – Landlords began to hire runaway slaves, despite penalties. Plague and famine happened. But people were not dying earlier. It seems low birthrates were the driver.
Estates were becoming more independent with small – scale manufacturing. Currency use was in decline.
432 – When C falls there is an increase in creativity because of an even more marked fall in V. But, as C continues to fall, even creativity disappears.
Significant philosophers of the later empire (Plotinus and Augustine) were interested in religion. As the skeptical infant C trait declined, religious thinking became more prevalent.
THE RISE OF CHRISTIANITY
Christianity benefitted from this decline in C. Christianity was ‘advanced’ in that it had V and C promoters. It was ascetic at this time.
433 – It also had ethical content. Negative attitudes towards sex helped infant C go up. Adopting Christianity was not enough to reverse the enormous momentum of declining C in the Roman empire, given low V, but it did help families.
When C is high, religion is not that important. Women have babies. When C is low, religious folks stand out. Look at Jews, Mormons and Amish in our time.
Early Christians were against abortion and infanticide which helped it spread.
CONTINUED FALL IN V AND STRESS
Stress went down by the 1st century AD. Executions went down and laws became more humane. Taxes went down.
434 – Masters couldn’t kill slaves and Emperors became like benevolent slaves.
The low level of deference became a feature of all classes.
435 – By all measures, judicial punishments, treatment of children, insecurity of rulers, deference, and status of women, levels of V and stress were at an all time low in the 2nd AD.
RISING STRESS FROM THE MID-SECOND CENTURY
By the 4th and 6th brutality became a feature of the Eastern empire. Attempts to reduce it by central officials failed.
And deference and status markers went back up.
436 – The system became less stable and more brutal. V went down and then came up very sharply.
THE FALL OF ROME
The fall of Rome was slow, not sudden. It was similar to 11th century France wherein the ruler’s sway barely went beyond his area.
Trade was in decline since the 1st AD.
438 – Britain, Brittany and Basque country were most resilient to barbarians. They were least Romanized and so had the most V.
THE ROMAN CIVILIZATION CYCLE
It is the same as other cycles. But, individuals and pockets vary.
439 – We get a chart of the cycle. And learn that since high levels of V and C depend on V and C promoters, the cycle is driven by both physiological and cultural factors.
And, we have the patterns wherein the provinces fall slower than the center. And, they sustain the center for a bit. [We’re seeing this with Russia].
V and Stress Increase C
Low V and stress reduce C
440 – ROMAN LEMMING CYCLES
For the empire as a whole G was at about 280 BC.
90 years later, Rome wasn’t much. Between 390 and 329 it was sacked a few times, this is G-90.
Then there was consolidation again. Cities stayed loyal to Rome during Hannibal’s attack. So we see the transition from G-90 to G.
442 – We see a gradual lengthening of lemming cycles as the Dark Ages approach, from 280 to 340 years: they are longer in less civilized times.
WHY DID CHRISTIANITY NOT SAVE THE EMPIRE?
443 – It didn’t even slow the decline. This is odd as it was extremely ascetic early on.
444 – The early calendar had not one but 3 lent periods.
But some church leaders didn’t live up to these standards.
445 – And as they were trying to popularize Christianity, they did not insist on chastity.
It wasn’t until the 6th that Popes became aesthetics and not until the 12th were priests forbidden to marry. SO the aestheticism was only minority in the early church and took a long time to spread.
V rose as monasteries did, from the 4th – 15th centuries.
C446 - hurches in Africa are now much more stern than those in Europe. But AIDs is widespread there. Church leader’s views don’t always filter to the masses.
And C cannot rise on its own. It needs V. And, low level V in Rome undermined hopes of C rising.
THE SURVIVAL OF THE EASTERN EMPIRE
Even as the West fell, North Africa and the Eastern Empire did okay. And, when the East fell, it didn’t fall, it was incorporated into another more powerful empire.
THE STABILITY FACTOR
So we have seen the cycle in Rome. And, Christianity was not enough to stop the fall. Partially because it is hard to be an aesthetic in a low C culture.
WHY WAS INFANT C LOWER IN THE EAST
But why did the cultural technology supporting C and V come from the Middle East? This includes both Christianity and the earlier spread of agriculture.
449 – We see this in the Greeks too. They were originally very sexually egalitarian. The Assyrians and folks from the East brought women’s low status to Greece.
We see the same in Japan. They get their tech from older sources of civilization (Buddhism from India and Confucianism from China).
So the old centers develop the cultural technology and younger civilizations use it.
CHARACTERISTICS OF HIGH INFANT C
Those that get wealthy have high infant C.
Second, with high infant C they have impersonal loyalties.
3rd, With infant C they respect rank. This means ruling families hold rank long after real power is gone.
WHY WERE GREEKS HIGHER IN INFANT C THAN PERSIANS?
451 – In early modern Europe too, the areas with the highest infant C industrialized best. These were areas never conquered by Rome.
Japan too, never conquered by India or China.
Europeans and Japanese, with less experience in civilization tend to control children in infancy. Older civilizations, like the Indians, Chinese and Arabs do not.
This not controlling infants cannot be explained by a lack of C promoting cultural technology. They dominate women and control their sexuality. But they do not get applied to infant C.
LOWER INFANT C, GREATER STABILITY?
452 – The areas of Rome that did not collapse were the oldest ones with the lowest infant C. They were colonized by the Greeks, these areas, and never formed city states or republics and remained cosmopolitan.
Not only does C rise highest in areas never previously conquered, it also falls fastest and further when they become conquered.
There is almost a perfect correlation between time spent in civilization and immunity to collapse. So it seems that prior experience of civilization somehow builds immunity to the collapse of C and V. But, it also keeps C from getting too high.
WHY DOES THE LATE CONTROL PATTERN OF CHILDREARING SPREAD SO SLOW?
453 – Patriarchy and sexual restrictions seem to spread quickly, so why not discipline of young children?
C and V promoters spread, but not the tendency to pamper kids. That doesn’t get adopted by newer civilizations. Europeans and Japs didn’t adopt this.
The other way, early infant control seems to never spread into long-civilized lands.
454 – INTRUDICING S – A GENETICALLY BASED “STABILITY FACTOR”
This means the tendency to control or indulge infants is not cultural or even epigenetic: it is genetic.
Long-civilized folks are genetically primed to be indulgent of infants; just as baboons protect black headed babies. This makes civilizations more stable. So it is called S.
Jew’s IQ and lactose show genes can change fast.
S keeps people more traditional and likely to have children in wealthy urban areas. The elite somehow still adapt a bit and have less kids. But overall, the population is relatively immune.
These folks are not only more conservative, but less market oriented.
455 – Thus the high S peasants of Eastern Rome stayed on the farm and made kids, while the Italian ones went to the cities and didn’t. .
We see this now! Japanese and Europeans get market oriented and don’t have kids. Middle Eastern folk resist the West, don’t industrialize and keep traditional values and subordinate women. And they hold to their ‘archetypical V religion, Islam.” They are not immune, but resilient.
456 – Wealthy folks had more kids in British rev. But when affluence increases and C and V fall, the advantage shifts to higher S.
S is not effected by culture and so different than C and V.
457 – A popular view is that civilization is rising to ever greater levels of creativity. But S puts a break on this. It curbs creativity and economic growth. This means if the West collapses, the successor civilizations will be less brilliant and poorer.
WY DO EUROPEANS NOT INDULGE INFANTS?
In chapter 5 we saw Americans were strict with their kids in the 1950s. They preferred older kids to infants. They were afraid of infants!
458 – In the same study they liked weening and were not indulgent of crying babies. English nannies were the same. Toilet training began at 2 – 3 months.
459 – That was until Dr. Spock. This was a general slacking at all ages, not just of infants. This early infant control seems to have been Europe-wide. Swedes and Danes are given as evidence.
In China and Egypt kids were not thought to understand right from wrong until 5 or 6.
LOW S AND RESPECT FOR HEREDITARY RANK
With C respect for rank varies. But with high S people it is much more durable.
Low S people have a peculiar reverence for hereditary rank. The emperor of Japan was worshipped a 1,000 years after his line lost any real power. Europe still has powerless monarchs all over.
LOW S AND A PREFERENCE FOR RULERS SIMILAR IN CULTURE AND APPEARANCE
Low S people prefer familiar local aristocrats and a preference for people similar to themselves in ethnicity, language and religion.
This has obvious biological roots. Gibbons are highly discriminatory.
464 – When C is high, this can lead to racism. This is why we only wanted white immigrants and Japan still discriminates.
Nations have survived even though Spanish overlords and Napoleon tried to subjugate.
HIGH S SOCIETIES – AUTHORITY BASED ON POWER
China, India and the Middle East have hereditary power too. But these folks are killed when deposed. They were not maintained as figure heads once deposed.
465 - The Chinese ruler was revered only so long as they were believed powerful. The last Ottoman Sultan and the Shah of Iran are forgotten. There are no powerless monarchs in these areas.
When Chinese scholar offspring do not do well, the lineage does not stay powerful. They drop back down.
High S places also lack intense national and local loyalties.
466 - They form cosmopolitan empires. China went to mountains. India is also bounded by mountains. When defeated, they accept foreign rulers.
CHARACTERISTICS OF LOW S PEOPLES
As they have local reverence, low S places tend to be split into nations or city states and are loyal to rulers and fight rule by foreigners.
As C goes high they are very creative and market-oriented. And, they are vulnerable to collapse. They do not hold onto tradition. Their high infant C can undermine V and so C.
467 - ANCIENT GREECE
Ancient Greece was the first high C infant C society. They were fierce and independent nationalists.
468 – Spartans and even, apparently, Aristotle thought infants should be handled roughly.
They had low S with powerful C and V promoters from the Middle East. This included the seclusion of women. This was adopted quickly.
469 – But they had never gone through a civilization collapse. They were protected.
In general, conquest by high S folks may weed out low S genes. Why? Low S people tend to rebel.
Infant C promotes loyalty to a certain people. High child V folks are more willing to submit to authority. People with high C and low V should therefore be intense but narrow in their loyalties. They want to be ruled by people like them, but not strictly so.
470 – Only Sparta maintained an empire and they had harsh treatment of older youth. They also had little interest in commerce.
471 – Athens had high infant C and low V and so was creative. Like Northern Italy during the renaissance.
Low child V in ancient Greece also explains why their creativity came so quickly after having gotten high C.
472 – It is possible that high infant C plus low stress raises IQ.
Democracy and creativity reached their peak in ancient Rome and 20th century Europe well after the peak of C. They both had high child V, which needed to decline first before the full flowering could take place.
But being low S, they were vulnerable to swings and collapse.
473 - GREEKS COMPARED TO ROMANS
Rome had high infant C. But they had higher V.
This explains their traditionalism and lack of innovation. And, it explains their larger empire.
SICILY AND SOUTHERN ITALY – THE RISE IN S
S likely rose higher in the North of Europe as barbarians brought that in.
The highest S in the Roman empire would be expected far from the center where barbarians didn’t settle. We see the impact of high S in Southern Italy and Sicily.
The Mafia loyalty to family and not caring about the government is very low infant C. Thus Sicily has been ruled by outsiders over and over. Italy is high S too.
475 – The lowest S and highest Infant C is in northerly and Germanic speaking areas. The divide somewhat parallels Protestant and Catholic divides.
He refers to Charles Murray’s finding men in the arts and sciences coming from these regions. They are areas of Germanic settlement and so never conquered.
The next chapters will look at High S civilizations.
CHINA AND INDIA
The Chinese, being high S, have accepted rule by outsiders repeatedly.
China was low S until the early centuries AD. It only became high S gradually.
477 – Leading up to the 6th century, their C rises, but not their infant C.
LOW S – THE ZHOU DYNASTY
Zhou is 8th century BC.
478 - But being low S, they remained as nominal overlords 500 years after they declined. The emperor may have ceased to rule, except in his area, but he still rules.
At some point in the past, the Chinese had high infant C. States were centralized with draconian law codes and massive armies. They had impersonal loyalties. Ethnic similarity facilitated this.
Trade developed and markets too. Innovation. The golden age of philosophy and Confucius happen during this time. He said ‘look to the past’ but he started the 100 schools of thought. Very ethical. Very C.
Taoism too. New customs were adopted by 3rd and 4th BC. There was also high V. There was violence. Warring states from 464 – 222.
THE SHANG: LOW S BUT LOW INFANT C
Why had the much earlier Shang dynasty never had high infant C? They didn’t have the cultural technology.
481 – THE FIRST CHINESE EMPIRE
The economy was good under the united empire of the 2nd century BC. This is a couple of centuries after the peak of C. The falling V led to innovation. Trade kept flourishing.
483 – THE END OF EMPIRE
The rise and fall of Chinese civs can be explained by lemming cycles. But the fall of the Zhou was harshest. Why? Low S. This allows high infant C and makes for unstable high creativity. But Low S makes for big collapses.
484 – THE CHINESE DARK AGES AND RISING S
Going forward Chinese dynasties don’t fall as hard. Population doesn’t implode so much.
Whereas the Germans flooded Rome, because the fall of C removed impersonal loyalties. But, barbarians played only a small role in the collapse of the first Chinese Empire All successors to the Han were Chinese.
This meant that the selection pressures resulting from the fall of C and V were strongly in favor of high S.
By the 5th AD, C and V were once more on the rise. There were many collapses, but these were moderated by bureaucrats, not aristocrats. So it wasn’t as violent.
RISING C WITHOUT INFANT C
Trade and the use of money go up (but not to Zhou levels). C and V remain not so high. Successful exam candidates got a feast in the brothel quarters.
Women were also free under the Tang.
486 – This got stricter under the Sung Dynasty (960 – 1126). Foot binding happened. And, we got Neo-Confucianism under the Mongols from 1239 – 1368.
By 1368 and the Ming and 1644 and the Qing sexual modesty had spread to the masses.
A CONTINUING RISING IN S AFTER THE TANG
Later dynasties were less creative and more orthodox. From the Tang (8th and 9th AD) on we get a drop in painters and poets – Charles Murray found.
This is the opposite of the West where you get more creative with time.
DECLINE OF THE HEREDITARY PRINCIPLE
The Zhou was very hereditary. They had a powerless monarch for 500 years. The Han too. Later big families only last for a few generations.
488 – The Ming, Qing and Communists did better in controlling the non-Chinese areas, than the Song had. This means that personal ties were down. This means more S and less infant C.
THE CHINESE CIVILIZATION CYCLE
The North is more V. So they have less market and are more conservative. And, they make dynasties. So Hong Kong and the South are more successful today.
489 – WHY DID C CONTINUE TO RISE?
Probably competition between families and kinship groups after 700 AD.
But why did S rise? When C is collapsing, there is a strong selection for those who resist it by staying on the farm and having babies. But after the 7th on, we see no big moves to the city. We have more stability. Higher infant C would have made you wealthier too.
Likely the reasons were political. After S went up, and it became more cosmopolitan, specific loyalties could be dangerous. Emperors were brutal to rebels. So, submitting to strong power was safer.
490 - This may also be why Russia and Eastern Europe also seems to have higher S.
CHINESE LEMMING CYCLES
The G years are in the first century of every dynasty.
491 – Confucius and Lau Tzu were around the G-60 cycle time of 530 BC.
The next pages map all the dynasties onto lemming societies.
494 – The Mongols suffered from lots of civil wars and lasted only 50 years in China, even with the most powerful army, because it hit the decline phase of the lemming cycle. The Manchus, by contrast, arrived just after the turbulence of the next cycle and lasted nearly 300 years.
Ming and Qing both came to power just after G-90 and did great for a century, communists too.
THE WARLORD ERA IN CHINA – CASE STUDY OF A G-90 PERIOD
This chaos was supported by personal ties.
495 – Rather than focus on the people we know, history makes more sense if we look at the temperament of the average soldier.
Mao focused on abstractions, though still personal by western standards. It did poorly at first, but change became more accepted as we hit the G-60 in 1950.
497 – Their G happened at 2010. This though the population stayed low due to one child policy.
Chinese lemming cycle, G is 470 BC, 210 BC, 80 AD, 650 AD, 1020, 1420, 1720 and 2010.
498 – There are longer cycles as V rises between 80 and 650. Then shorter cycles thereafter with an exception of 1020 – 1420 when nomads overran.
It also goes from low to high S.
Crying babies get instant attention. Communities take care. There is early low S and then a transition to high S, with C but not infant C.
The first early states kept their identities for 100s of years.
The most creative folks were in the 6th BC. This means high infant C made possible by low S. But it was also highly unstable. The Mauryan empire was pacifist-ish. This meant falling V. After his death, 6 centuries of weakness and disorder. What came after were always empires. These were more conservative.
There were few barbarians and S continued to rise.
501 – They accepted alien rulers. They had rising C and V under ascetic Hinduism until Islam with its V came in.
THE SUCCESS OF HIGH – S SOCIETIES
We judge by achievement. But biologically, these civilizations have staying power. It is not a coincidence that the Ganga and Indus valley are now predominantly Muslim. These are the oldest and so most conservative. And, Islam is the most supportive of V and antithetical to infant C of any culture.
High S people can be creative because they indulge younger children. Like Jews.
503 - JEWS AND JUDAISM
Controlling food and masturbation and women makes Judaism high C. This makes people disciplined and willing to sacrifice for the future.
504 – JEWISH CHILDREARING
Jewish babies are rarely unattended. And teaching happens early.
505 - THE BENFITS OF HIGH S FOR JEWS
Those who survived Roman rule should be high S.
Lower infant C and higher Child V makes tradition more attractive and reduces the risk of assimilation. Jews don’t have such high infant C.
They resisted powerful enticement to assimilate. This is high S.
But since they were not as punitive later in life they had lower Childhood V than arabs.
506 – But as childhood V falls in the modern world, assimilation is happening.
JEWS AND CHINESE – THE PARALLELS
Both have high C and relatively high S.
507 - As the Jews’ V fell before C they had a big flowering of creativity. There was high IQ for Jews too, but epigenetics are more important as Jews’ advantage is dropping with the cycle.
508 – This shows that high S is not a total defense against falling V and C in ruban populations. The Jews’ birthrate is low. And, having not so high infant C made communism a possibility for both Chinese and Jews.
509 – A Chart shows groups’ levels of letters across time.
GENETICS, EPIGENETICS, AND ECONOMIC POTENTIAL
S levels do not determine success. Epigenetics play a bigger role in this.
THE TRIUMPH OF THE FUNDAMENTALISTS
S makes people indulgent with children but stricter with older kids. They are poorer and more conservative and so have higher V, and so have more children. Once S is high enough to have a large empire, S is selected for by weeding out those who revolt.
These high S societies are also maintained by cultural technologies that raise C and V. The Germanic peoples of the North got this technology, but didn’t have high S. So they boomed.
Places like Italy and Cicily were less impacted by low S barbarians. So S rose. And, then when civ came back, infant C did not.
Islam has the highest S and V promoters too.
Rising S was not diluted by barbarian invasion because Egypt is protected on its sides. After 1550 BC there was no more anarchy. Like China and India, though, they too had an early period of infant C.
SUMER AND AKKAD
514 - They had high infant C early on. We see this via long lasting Roman institutions. S was low. They were great innovators (the wheel and abacus). This with few people.
But, the kings were getting weaker so C was falling. Falling V too as Sargon of Akkad conquered them.
Hammurabi reuinited them in the 18th century BC. After that we get high C characteristics.
516 – Stable, but not so creative.
THE PASSING OF ADVANCED CULTURAL TECHNOLOGY TO THE BARBARIANS
The invaders do not come from areas of famine. They come from areas of high V promoters and patriarchy.
To conquer they need organizations.
517 – Where to get C and V promoting tech? From established civs.
518 – Sumerian civs poured immense resources into religion. One big C enforcer is the 7 day week with a Sabbath. Hammurabi also had sexual control.
519 – The barbarian Akkadians adopted the Sumerian’s religious system. Conquest by high V people tends to increase the V in those conquered as they imitate the behavior of the successful conquerors. This also makes C go up as stress goes up.
Thus the civilization and the barbarians reinforce each other’s C and V. This is slow as people don’t readily adopt behavior they are not used to. A religion with high C cannot be readily adopted by people with low C. But over time higher C will be adopted.
THE CONVERSION OF AFRICA
520 – We see this in the high growth of Islam and Christianity in sub-Saharan Africa today.
521 – The high infant C low sex promotion has little impact on the general population yet. Even after 100 years of missionary work.
522 – In Africa a third of all women are in polygamous relationships. South Africa is one of the most religiously observant places in the world. Half the population attends worship every week. And, it has the most AIDS.
523 – The strict Pentecostals have had more success. With charismatic leaders. And, it is making some people get wealthier.
524 – ISRAEL
The laws and names of Abraham’s forefathers were Mesopotamian. But Abraham is Sumerian. We get pastoral high V people with a high birth rate. They take Cannan’s religion.
526 – Only three of the ten commandments relate to C or V. The sins upon the 3rd and 4th generation is epigenetics.
The last 5 are about treating others well. Ethical behavior is attractive to high C people. And, there is moving literature and music that teach values in a memorable entertaining way via powerful role models. This raises C.
527 – The Jews continued to rebel and so still had higher infant C than others. Their religion gave them C and V and this spread to others.
THE STRENGTHENING OF V – AND C – PROMOTING TECHNOLOGY
This was among already high S civilizations. This promotion of higher V with low infant C but higher C made empires.
529 – Alexander could conquer because the people accepted foreign authority if strong.
530 – Low S civilizations reach their greatest influence when C is in decline. They are united and are working to assimilate people to a more licentious way of life. This is easier than enforcing stern ways.
The Greeks took over but their culture didn’t stick. Aramaic remained the lingua franca.
The chaos following indicates high V.
531 – ISLAM
They’re patriarchy and punishment of older children creates lots of V. This makes them better able to accept authority. Islam united beduin in their G phase.
Islam is a cultural technology, not just a rallying cry.
They took the 40 day fast from Christians. He added the day light hours. Islam appeals to high V people. Low V people (like the Greeks) resisted its imposition.
Praying five times a day and resisting alcohol raises C.
533 – Early people converting made the jizzya hard to collect. So they asked people not to convert and kept jizzya for 80 years after conversion. If you take on the high V you can outbreed your conquerers.
524 – Wahhabism is in Saudi Arabia because of the harsh climate. This makes for extreme patriarchy. FMG happens too.
Parliamentary democracy is for people with high infant C and low V. Middle Easterners are primed for personal loyalties and accepting harsh authorities.
THE TRIUMPH OF FUNDAMENTALISM
This keeps them poor and distinct. Thus violent slums around Paris.
536 – When it comes to long term survival, creativity has limited value. The short creativity of Islam mayhavee happened because the new elite was descended from low – S barbarians. And, so may have had high infant C for a while. But they intermarried with the low S folks and their genes were swamped.
Thus it is the same as China and India, S goes up.
How have Christians and Jews survived in Muslim lands? Ecological niches.
537 – Jews have had lower birth rates and so taken better care of their kids and more survive. Same for Jews in Europe.
538 – Ironically Islam is doing well today due to the success of the West’s industrial revolution. This allowed for a population explosion.
539 – But they will survive the affluence and liberalizing influence of the West. This is not the triumph of Islam – there is a variety – but the triumph of the tougher type.
“There is little doubt that Europe will become an Islamic continent in the next century or so. A fourteen hundred year struggle is coming to an end.”
THE DECLINE OF THE WEST
541 – DECLINING V AND STRESS
The rapid rise of C in the West was partially due to high levels of V and stress that peaked in the 16th century. As V fell, C came to a halt in the 19th.
In this section we see V falling through the 20th and 21st, paralleling Rome.
V is a “populate or perish” trait. Higher C also promotes interest in children. We saw this in the maternal nature of calorie-restricted rats. This was helped by stable governments.
Only Israel is producing enough kids for replacement.
543 – Many theories as to why the declining birthrate have been proposed. Biohistory puts it down to temperament with lower V and C.
544 - This explains why Orthodox Jews are immune. Mormons too. Amish too. If biohistory is right, not only will there be fewer young people to support the old, but they’ll lack the skills to do so.
Governments can do nothing to stem this tide. The Nazi’s through all they had at the fertility problem. It was a short term rise. And there were less popular impacts as well. By 1939, the divorce rate was up 50% and 23% of young Germans had VD.
They had more births after the war without any programs.
People have children because they want to have children, not because the government tells them to.
Russia under the USR failed too. In recent years Russia has tried to promote Orthodox Christianity, that is a step in the right direction, but will be futile in the long run. Efforts to use financial incentives have also failed.
547 – Red States in the US are more fertile. George Bush won a majority in the states with the highest fertility. Kerry, the low fertility. Especially if minorities are excluded.
Utah has the highest birthrate and DC the lowest (Democratic sinkhole).
549 - SEXUAL EQUALITY
Patriarchy is a V promoter. In the Victorian era women didn’t have the right to vote. Women were barred from most professions and their property was their man’s.
By the 1840s feminist movements were on the rise. By the 1960s feminist challenged all gender roles.
550 – By the 21st century, the roles have been reversed. This all reflects a very unprecedented fall in V.
551 – There hasn’t been much jingoism for the Iraq wars. Not like for WW I.
LOSS OF CULTURAL CONFIDENCE AND MORAL
V is related to high moral. So a loss should undermine how people look at their own cultures. During the 19th western confidence was at an all time high. Two decades after WW II we started having much pessimism.
This is contrast to the jingoism of Victorians after the Napoleonic wars.
DECLINE IN THE CORPORAL PUNISHMENT OF CHILDREN
552 – As stress and V decline we’ve gone from assuming child punishment to criminalizing it.
553 – People were willing to accept Dr. Spock’s lenient childrearing advise. Punishing kids was outlawed in the 1920s and 1930s in much of Europe. Banned in 1987 in British schools.
555 – THE DECLINE OF CAPITAL PUNISHMENT
In Britain, in 1908, they banned the execution of those under 16. Now only the US does it.
556 - INCREASED IQ
C plus lowering V leads to creativity. Our IQs are going up.
557 - The IQ gains are just where V is falling. And we should see these reverse as C declines further.
IMPLICATIONS OF DECLINING V
Much of declining V is a positive. It means declining war, opportunities for women, possibly higher IQ and less population driven environmental ruin.
But History will not end in victory as Fukayama prophesized.
And technology won’t save us as tech makes us lazy and speeds up the decline.
558 – DECLINING C
We’re like 150 years into the decline of Rome. But, it seems, as cycles get shorter, we’re further along than that. We have been particularly tanking since the 1960s.
EARLIER AGE OF PUBERTY
Puberty was at 13 – 14 during the famine – ridden Medieval Europe, rose as high as 17 during the prosperous 19th. Since then it is going down again.
560 – In Korea it fell from 168 in the 1920s to 15.23 in the 1960s to 12.6 in the 1980s.
This isn’t due to better nutrition. The Victorians were well off and theirs was high.
Falling C comes from overeating, but it is a cause too. Obesity is linked to risk-taking in men and impulsivity in women, as well as single-parenthood and poverty. All low C.
It is also part of a feedback cycle. Korea is relatively skinny. But as C declines, we can expect more.
562 - EARLY MARRIAGE AND SEXUAL ACTIVITY
Late marriage is high C it happens when food is limited.
The minimum allowed age of marriage in England was 12 in 1275. It was 16 in 1885.
In Britain, 27% of women are active prior to the age of consent, compared to 4% in the 1950s.
The age of first sex may have gone up in the US, where it is 16.9. But this is due to recession.
563 – In low income families in Boston, Chicago and San Antonio the average first was 12 for boys and 13 for girls. Reversing this could help.
SEX: MORE ACTIVITY LESS CONTROL
Premarital went up in the 1920s, but it didn’t decline in the 1930s or 40s. There was no reset.
564 – The pill and the sexual revolution accelerated our decline in C.
Extramarital birth is way up. Tolerance of homosexuality has a similar meaning and shows declining C. In 1861 it was punishable by death. Then reduced to 10 years hard labor in 1861, then 1885, two years. Today open in the military.
565 – This is defiant of cultural technology. 35% of those very religious consider it okay for 18 year olds to have sex outside of marriage.
DECLINE OF THE NUCLEAR FAMILY
It is not the decline in divorce that is alarming, but that of non-regular unions. These tend to be more short term. The percentage of children raised by single parents is way up.
566 – LESS CONTROL OF CHILDREN
Child rearing guides in the 1890s were harsh.
567 – The first changes are in the 1920s.
Control of C is one of the most reliable and consistent measures of C.
DECLINING SPERM COUNT AND TESTOSTERONE
When female rats were 25% calorie restricted during the first 11 days after their liters were born, the adult male sperm count was significantly higher. Also when the juvenile rat was CR between days 22 and 28.
Chinese gentry and Roman wealthy seem to have had this problem too.
568 – Studies are not clear, but sperm count in western men is dropping too in the last two decades.
CHANGES IN MORAL TEACHING AND THE RISE OF PASSIVE WELFARE
569 – A study of 18 – 23 year olds found that murder, rape and robbery were wrong were the only remaining traditional values.
There was unconditional charity in the Middle Ages and the dole in the late Roman Empire. Not so in Victorian times. Later we got both bread and circuses to buy support.
In America today, about half get some government benefit.
570 – DECLINE OF THE MARKET; RISE OF THE STATE
A reliable indicator of C is that goods are distributed via the market, not through mutual sharing as in hunter gatherer societies. In most European nations, the government now spends well over 50% of the GDP. In the US it was 7% in the early 1900s and is now 42%.
571 – Along with this we see more government regulation. Some is good. But it shows comfort with in government, low C.
The emperor Diocletian in the late 3rd made laws to fix prices and tie folks to their ancestral homeland.
572 – California has done well from the fall in childhood stress and V – temporarily.
High infant C makes people against alien rule. The rise of the EU is thus a sign of infant C decline.
573 – “Also related is the ideology and practice of multiculturalism. People with high infant C show a strong preference for their own ethnic group, language and culture. As C declines other cultures are seen as equally valid, with the effect of allowing in large numbers of immigrants from poorer countries, contributing to the loss of national identity.”
On the other hand, we’ve seen regionalism in Scotland, Wales and Catalonia. The reasons for this are likely more economic than temperamental.
DECLINING IMPERSONAL LOYALTIES
We see increasing loyalty to people who are well known, as in hunter gatherers. Unions, political parties and business corporations are such impartial loyalties in decline.
575 – There is low trust and voter turnout is lowest among groups with the lowest C. Poor, young and uneducated don’t vote so much.
576 - DECLINING WORK ETHIC
Work hours have gone down from 52 hours a week in 1910 to under 40 in 2005 in the US. Between 1960 and 2010, the number qualifying for Fed disability went from .7% of the US population to 5.3%. And, working class unemployment is up though jobs are available and taken by immigrants.
577 – The number of hours spent at college was 40 in 1960 and was 27 in 2004.
High C people like being at work. Until 1994 58% said they looked for a job that gave them a sense of accomplishment. In 2006 shorter work hours and job security. Work is less valued for its own sake.
578 – Men in 2003 – 5 spent less time job searching than men in 1985.
As of 2012 Korea had an average income higher than the EU average. Despite having a 1st world standard of living, Koreans still work 2,193 hours per year compared with the OECD average of 1,718. But the work ethic is slipping.
579 - Koreans today work 206 hours a week, down from 226 in the 1980s. The West has been losing C for a century and a half, Asian societies have only been declining for decades.
Asians spend 15 hours a week on college homework; whites 10 hours; African Americans (“descended mainly from the moderate C people of sub-Saharan Africa, have the lowest C, so their hours of study are the lowest.” 7.5 – Hispanics about 8.5
INCREASED DEBT AND REDUCED SAVINGS
High C people will sacrifice now to build wealth later on. Thrift is high C. Our government and personal debt is way up high.
582 – DECLINE IN MACHINE SKILLS, ENGINEERING AND SCIENCE
Moderate C can get you jobs in a government bureaucracy or retail. But engineering requires high infant C.
We invented more before.
583 – And public attitudes were favorable with scientists and engineers often seen as heroes.
Since 1982 the nmber of UK A-Level exams in physics has halved. A quarter of the universities that offered it went down by a quarter since 1994. Government pointing out the need for physicists hasn’t helped.
584 – The British used to dominate in science Nobel prizes. No longer. US too. We’ve been helped by high level immigrants and Ashkenazis.
South Korea too has seen a decline in interest in science and engineering careers.
585 – In 2014 52% of China’s degrees were in science and engineering. In the US 17%. And our skilled are now mostly 45 years old and older.
586 – In 2006 foreign students earned 36.2 % of doctoral degrees in the sciences and 63.6% of those in engineering.
587 – Tech is very dependent on high infant C.
DECLINE IN PRODUCTIVITY
588 – We got a surge in worker productivity from the tech revolution. That peaked in 2007 and never got back to pre 1973 levels anyways.
Germany and Scandinavia are declining slower than other nations.
PEAK OF ECONOMIC GROWTH
In the west, the decline of V was most rapid until the 1960s, the decline of C has been more rapid sicne then. This is a pattern.
591 – If economic growth is promoted by C but inhibited by child V, then the optimum condition for growth would be where V has fallen rapidly but C is still there. In other words, the 1960s.
592 – The pro-market policies of Reagan and Thatcher gave a temporary boost to the economy in the 1980s and 1990s. But, could not impact the underlying trend of declining C.
The rise in productivity in the 1960s is like the economic boom in late 3rd, early 2nd century Rome. They went market at that time.
593 – THE IMMIGRANT ADVANTAGE
Like Rome, we’ll be temporarily bolstered by high C Asian immigrants.
The immigrants will go low C via acculteration in a generation or two and the baby boomers are retiring.
594 - There is little the government can do about this. Even more education – since it now undermines C promoting behavior.
Our decline in epidemics happened most before the invention of antibiotics.
TB dropped the most from 1851 to 1935.
In rats food restriction increases resistance to disease. The black death was due to it being G-150. It was low C and high stress.
1960 was high C and low V and so resistant to disease. This theory means disease should be on the rise. HIV, SARS, Avian.
596 – GROWING GAP BETWEEN RICH AND POOR
As Rome went down farmers left for the city and the gap grew between rich and poor.
597 – People with moderately high C and low child V do well in modern jobs. Our growth peaked when there was equality (unlike the Romans). But as the fall of C accelerated, the gap widened. Now we have the poor and the super wealthy.
598 – Inequality has been rising in Korea too, but the decline started later so there is still C. So it is less.
A reason for the gap is the decline in income by the poor. In 1970 less than 10 of white Americans were born to single mothers. Now for mothers with less than 12 years of education it is 60%. It is only 5% for mothers with 16 or more years of education.
599 - Lower income people consider their marriages less happy.
People on lower incomes were far fewer hours than the better off. It is due, largely, to a lack of interest in the jobs available.
Low – income people are also less likely to be religious. Time preference is shifting too, so that people are less willing to sacrifice now for the future. This has been the worst among the poor.
600 – POLITICAL PARTNERSHIP
We were more bi-partisan in 1970s. By 1983 there was little overlap between parties. Now more than ever.
601 – As Rome fell, when there was no food people rioted. But we’re too obese so expect a harsher collapse! We can, as China did, increase wealth by taking off government controls of the economy. But an increase in wealth will undermine C. In the long run it leaves us worse off!
602 - The rise of capitalism in the Roman world is, ironically, one of the reasons it collapsed. The trade went up as work went down.
The USSR created less wealth so this maintained C. But it also promoted women and so undermined V.
Mao nearly obliterated Confucianism. Attempts to bring it back show how completely it was creamed. Biohistory predicts its decline will be precipitous. Why? Their nationalism ideology cannot support C. The Muslim world will not decline.
603 – POLITICAL DECLINE
Once economic collapse has started, the end of democracy cannot be far behind. The Roman republic did not fall due to a lack of clever political ideas.
Rather than anarchy, when we collapse, due to immigration, we will have “a stable and conservative Muslim peasant culture like that of the Ottoman Empire, with grindingly poor masses ruled by a privileged elite. North America might even follow a similar path, or perhaps develop some rigidly conservative Christian version.”
Africa is hopeless because it can get the tech and has the aid, but not the temperament to use it.
Then, once S has risen, there can be no more brilliant low-S civilizations. This, not liberal democracy, is the “end of history.”
THE NEED FOR TESTING
We need a whole program of scientific research.
605 – MEASURING EPIGENETIC EFFECTS
We need to measure CR impact to see if C and V are discreet systems.
At what age does CR have the most impact?
At what age do infant C effects cease?
Are C promoters in late childhood different from those adopted later?
MEASURING EPIGENETIC EFFECTS IN HUMANS
We need to correlate epigenetic measurements with attitudes and behavior.
People with higher C, especially compared to infant C, should be more religious. Are they? Are high V people more often in the military?
GROSS GENERATIONAL C- AND V- PROMOTERS
To what extent are C and V promoters set prior to birth?Rat studies will help here.
606 – ANIMALS IN A SEMI-NATURAL SETTING
Set up colonies and give them different food conditions. Let them ‘play’ and lets see what happens.
Let’s do the same with primates, if ethically permissible.
TESTING THE C AND V OF PRIMATES IN THE WORLD
This via collecting blood and feces. Those in smaller troops should have higher C markers. Those with more hierarchy, more V.
607 – STUDYING AND CREATING LEMMING CYCLES
Severe intermittent food shortages should encourage lemming cycles in any mammal.
We could take animals from different stages in the lemming cycle and look for markers.
This could also be used to work out exactly what G is. It is not V but gives birth to the highest V generation. It provides national unity and independent thought, but not for any biological reasons. Does it have a signature, epigenetically?
SOME MORE LABORATORY TESTS
CR animals should be tested for intensive food searching behavior and their willingness to do routine work for food.
What if we gave animals lots of food for several generations? Would their C and V decline?
608 – EARLY CR AND TESTOSTERONE
What is the source of early CR increasing testosterone? Is it due to stress? Is it a result of maternal behavior?
SOME TESTS ON HUMANS
Severely restricting the sexual outlet of people (esp adolescents) should create C physiological changes and changes in attitudes and behavior. This would include religious sentiment.
Also we can subject them to arbitrary rules to see if this has an effect.
Do commandos have higher V after basic training?
609 - TESTING AGE COHORTS
We should test people born at the ends of major stressers. People experiencing recessions in late childhood or adulthood should have higher C and V. Which impact is stronger?
We should measure their punishment and control of infants and youth. We could use cameras in the home.
Do northern Chinese have higher V than southern?
610 – People in high S societies such as Arabs and Chinese should be tested for interest in babies, versus older children via pupil dilation.
In societies where women are more tightly controlled do we see higher testosterone?
PREDICTING ECONOMIC DOWNTURNS
Testosterone measures should be used to test the severity and timing of economic downturns.
These could be used to treat alcoholism and addiction, obesity, and poor maternal care. The research team is developing and testing these.
Anyone else interested is invited to do so. They have Ph.D. scholarships available.